We’ve got eight games on the NHL slate tonight, including a marquee matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back, coming off losses to inferior opponents.
The NHL odds suggest Toronto should win this matchup, but they may need another strong performance from William Nylander to get it done. Find out why in my free NHL picks for this Saturday, November 25 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins odds
Maple Leafs vs Penguins predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a tough overtime loss against the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday afternoon, where the Buds surrendered a two-goal lead in the third period. The story is the exact same with the Pittsburgh Penguins, who choked away a 2-0 lead in the final frame to lose 3-2 to the Buffalo Sabres in regulation. I suspect both teams will be dialed in for this game to avenge those losses.
I think there will be another motivating factor tonight, and that’s the Kyle Dubas revenge narrative. The Leafs jettisoned their former GM last season after another playoff flameout. Not too long after claiming he didn’t want to be anywhere else, the 37-year-old popped up in Pittsburgh and has surely had this game circled on the schedule ever since.
On the flipside, Toronto may want to play inspired after the embarrassing effort in Chicago, where the whole core four was held off the score sheet for the first time all season yesterday, which also meant William Nylander’s streaks came to an end as well. However, Nylander was still dangerous in the loss, and I suspect that the second line will continue to gain chemistry and bounce back with a big performance to start a couple of more streaks.
Nylander’s shot prop total is set at 3.5 tonight, and it’s a number he’s been blowing past all season long. He’s been the Leafs’ best player this year and one of the top volume shooters in the NHL, ranking fourth in the league in shots per 60 minutes while averaging 4.44 per game. As for the 3.5 shots total, it’s a number he’s cashed in 12 of his 18 games so far this season, and I expect him to do it again.
Plus, it’s a number that he’s hit in two of the last three games against Pittsburgh specifically, where he’s had a good amount of success with goals in three straight games against the Pens.
As for the Penguins, their defense has been prone to giving up volume shooting of late. The Pens are averaging 33.1 shots against per game in the month of November, which ranks 27th in the league. That’s an awful lot of shots available for Nylander tonight.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (-155 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Penguins same-game parlay
William Nylander anytime goal
Maple Leafs team total Over 2.5
Under 7.5
For Leg 1 of my same-game parlay, let’s take a Nylander anytime goal. Shot props aren’t eligible for parlays, but I do think one of his shots finds the back of the net. Nylander has a goal in three straight meetings against the Pens and has scored in five of his last six games.
Next up, let’s take the Leafs to go Over the team total of 2.5 goals. The Leafs average 3.5 goals per game and have cashed in on this prop in eight straight games, and three of the last four against the Penguins. As for Pittsburgh, its allowed 3+ goals in four of its last six games and have an expected-goals-against of 3.16 per 60 minutes.
For the final leg of my parlay, I’ll take the alternate total of Under 7.5 goals. We’ve seen nine of the 10 meetings between these two finish with seven goals or less. With both clubs looking for a bounce-back, I expect detailed hockey tonight, which could lead to some stingy defense on both sides.
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Maple Leafs vs Penguins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs are slight favorites tonight at -115 odds on the moneyline, while the Pens are home dogs at -105.
The Leafs won both meetings last season by a combined score of 9-3. Toronto typically plays up to their opponent, so one would imagine they’ll wake up for this Dubas revenge game as well to get back into the win column.
The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals. The Under is slightly favored at -115, with the Over getting -105 odds.
The Under has hit in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams. The Leafs have kept it rather low scoring on the road this season, with the Under hitting in six of eight games as the away side, while the Pens have hit in six of nine home games. It appears the public likes a high-scoring game with 62% of the total bets on the Over, but the sharps are leaning Under as only 38% of the bets make up 60% of the handle.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1-2 in the Penguins' last nine games against a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Penguins.
Maple Leafs vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, November 25, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, TVA Sports |
Maple Leafs vs Penguins latest injuries
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