The Maple Leafs have ripped off two straight wins thanks to the help of rookie goalie Erik Kallgren and now Auston Matthews will jump back into the lineup ahead of tonight’s matchup in Nashville against the Predators.
Can the Leafs put together another solid performance now that they're getting saves? Are the Predators anything more than a .500 team that's feeling the pressure in the standings? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Predators.
Maple Leafs vs Predators odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as -125 favorites and has touched -120 at most books. The total opened at 6 but is creeping north to 6.5. Toronto closed as a -190 home favorite in the last meeting with a total of 5.5. The Leafs won that game 3-0 with only one goal being scored across the game’s first 55 minutes.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Predators predictions
Predictions made on 3/19/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Predators game info
• Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
• Date: Saturday, March 19, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports South, Sportsnet
Maple Leafs vs Predators betting preview
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: Jack Campbell G (Out), Jake Muzzin (Out).
Predators: Matt Benning D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Predators head-to-head record since 2015-16
Maple Leafs: 7-3 SU, 29 goals for.
Predators: 3-7 SU, 20 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 12-3-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last 16 games as a road favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Predators.
Maple Leafs vs Predators picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Leafs are getting some saves, and that has correlated to a pair of wins versus some decent opponents in the Stars and Hurricanes. Rookie goalie Erik Kallgren has stopped 69 of 71 shots over the two-game stretch and has been a savior for this Leafs’ team that was stuck in quicksand with the recent play of Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek. Now, the rookie goalie will take his newfound act on the road as the Leafs travel to Nashville for one game before heading back home. Are we ready to trust this team again?
Making the consecutive wins even more impressive was that they did it without leading goal scorer Auston Matthews, who was serving a two-game suspension. There is an agreement to be made that, perhaps, his absence was needed, as this team was relying too heavily on the center. Well, now he’s back, the defense has gotten tighter with the pairing of Morgan Reilly and Ilya Lyubushkin, and they face a Nashville team they shut out in the last meeting.
The Predators come into tonight’s game following a 5-4 road loss to the Flyers. Tonight will be their fifth game in eight nights (two of those on the road) and John Hynes’ team has played .500 hockey over its last 16 games with an 8-8 SU record. They are 2-4 SU versus the East over their last six games while likely starter Juuse Saros has allowed five goals in two of his last three starts. Saros can steal games, but he can lay duds as well and has allowed at least three goals in eight of his last 13 games (62%) and at least four goals in six of those 13 (46%).
The Leafs come into this match playing their best hockey of late in net and on defense. They’ve given up plenty of shots, but Kallgren has answered the call. Now their offense, that’s scoring 4.40 goals per game over its last 10 games, gets a huge boost with Matthews drawing back in and faces a goalie who just gave up five goals to the 31st ranked offense in the Flyers.
Matthews had the game-winner in the last meeting on the power play and could get the chance to tickle the twine with the man advantage again tonight. Nashville takes more penalties than any other team in hockey and it isn’t even close. They have a league-average penalty kill and face the Leafs’ No. 1 power play.
The Leafs have finally shown some consistency and the rookie goalie has brought some confidence in the team, who wasn’t getting any stops a week ago. Toronto closed as -190 home favorites in the last meeting making tonight’s -120 line roughly 30 points short if we’re adding 20 points for home-ice advantage.
It may be a loud environment for a young goaltender, but Sheldon Keefe has spoken well of his goalie’s emotional stability and this single-game road trip is a good schedule spot for the Leafs in a tough barn.
Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-120)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs have hit the Under in back-to-back games for the first time in 30 games. They’ve been an auto-Over bet of late, but those days might be done now that they are keeping pucks out of the net. However, with a goalie in Saros who has allowed five goals in two of his last three starts, Matthews drawing back in and Kallgren making his first road start, could we see both teams find the back of the net tonight?
Looking at the last 30 days as a data set, the Leafs and Predators are the league’s No. 3 and No. 4 offenses scoring 4.00 and 3.93 goals per game, respectively. Saros has a 2.62 GAA since the beginning of 2022 and is 8-6 to the Over since February 1.
Kallgren has done an amazing job of jumping into a rough situation and has performed admirably. However, the Leafs have still been giving up a ton of shots since he took over and have conceded at least 35 shots over their last three games.
Getting the league leader in goals back into the lineup also has us liking Over on this minimal total of 6. Matthews has 12 goals over his last 10 games and is averaging 1.52 points since January 1. His addition comes at a perfect time for a Leafs power play that could use a boost, and the Preds could give them a bump start.
Nashville averages 4.63 penalties per game, which is the most in hockey by a fair margin. Matthews buried a PP goal in the first meeting and could see another three to four opportunities to score with the man advantage.
On the road, the Leafs allow 3.30 goals per game which is a Bottom-12 mark on the season. Roman Josi leads the league in points in March with 19, while teammate Matt Duchene isn’t far behind with 15. The Leafs had the advantage of the last change in the previous meeting, but now the Preds will be able to let the Forsberg-Johansen-Duchense line loose.
The last meeting might deter some from hitting the Over, but not us. Matthews is back, a rookie goalie is making his first road start in a loud barn, and the Preds are the least disciplined team in hockey.
Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
Best bet
Auston Matthews being away from this team for two games likely helped it regroup, but 34 is back in the lineup, and Mitch Marner is rolling as well, ready to ride shotgun. The race to 50 goals continues tonight for the Leafs’ centerman.
Usually, top players’ prop markets are the most efficient, but with Matthews paying +120 to score at bet365 while other books are hanging -130, this is a great price to take advantage of. He leads the league in goals, scored against the Preds in the last meeting, and should see plenty of cracks with the man advantage. He has been practicing during his suspension and will be ready to rock tonight.
Pick: Auston Matthews anytime goal (+120)
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