There are nine games on the NHL slate tonight, including an intriguing matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Nashville Predators. The Leafs are riding a three-game winning streak and the NHL odds suggest they can stretch it to four in a row.
However, can Ilya Samsonov outduel Juuse Saros in the net to make that happen? Find out in my free NHL picks for this October 28 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Predators odds
Maple Leafs vs Predators predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs are at the tail end of a long five-game road trip and finish it off in Nashville.
The Leafs tend to match up well against older teams that play at a slower pace. The Nashville Predators rank in the Bottom 10 in both categories, which should bode well for Toronto. The history of this matchup certainly dictates that, with the Leafs sweeping the season series last year and having won four of the five meetings against Nashville in the Sheldon Keefe era.
Speaking of Keefe, he’s decided to go with Ilya Samsonov in net tonight, with the far more superior Juuse Saros getting the nod for Nashville.
Samsonov desperately needs a bounce-back performance to quiet the critics after being yanked in his last start, where he allowed three goals on four shots against the Lightning. The former first-round netminder spent the week playing backup to Joseph Woll and has been reportedly putting in extra work at practice with goalie coach Curtis Sanford to get his game back in order.
Luckily for the Leafs goaltender, the Preds aren’t offensive juggernauts, averaging just 2.86 goals per game (20th in the NHL). Outside of Filip Forsberg, the Preds lack finishers, and that could be troublesome against a Toronto team averaging 3.7 goals per game with Auston Matthews and William Nylander both dominating.
The Leafs are coming off a solid performance against Dallas too, where the offense looked crisp and Toronto kept the puck in the Dallas end often with stingy neutral zone play leading to turnovers and extra offensive positions. The Leafs should look to deploy a similar game plan against Nashville to make sure Saros ends up with a busier workload than Samsonov.
Additionally, the Buds have a massive advantage with their power play — operating at a 33% clip on the man advantage. Nashville has the second-worst PK in the league at a mere 68%.
If the Leafs can force the Preds into the box a couple of times, Toronto should be able to find success there.
My best bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-145 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Predators same-game parlay
Leafs ML
Under 6.5
Leafs 1P -0.5
I’ve got the Leafs first period spread (-0.5) to accompany my ML prediction. The Preds haven’t played since Tuesday and could be a little rusty out of the gate. I’d look for Toronto to take control of the first period and try to give Samsonov an early lead. Plus, Nashville is averaging a goal against in the first period this year and has only scored four times themselves in the team’s first seven games.
The final leg of my parlay has me buying half a goal and taking Under the total of 6.5. To win the game, I firmly believe Samsonov will have to keep Nashville to two or fewer tallies, as it’ll be difficult to score much more than that on Saros (2.58 GAA). Additionally, the Under has hit in three of the last four meetings between these clubs. I think the trend continues.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Predators moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs head into tonight’s game as the favorites (-145), with Nashville getting +120 odds as the home dogs. Follow the money, folks. Toronto has the support of 63% of the public, but a whopping 80% of the handle. The Buds are expected to win and should be able to pull it off against a far inferior opponent.
The total for tonight’s game opened at six goals, with the odds favoring the Over at -120, while the Under pays even money (+100). Betting on the Under has been lucrative in this matchup, as it’s hit in five of the last seven meetings. Alternatively, you could consider buying up the Under to 6.5 goals (-125) for that added insurance and get the hook. Either way, both of these teams are consistently going Under the total this season with a combined record of 8-4-2.
Maple Leafs vs Predators betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 5-2 in their last seven meetings in Nashville. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Predators.
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Maple Leafs vs Predators game info
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, October 28, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
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