The Toronto Maple Leafs last lost in regulation on November 11 and have gone 12-0-3 over that stretch, but with Matt Murray coming off a rough start and a schedule that has been very favorable for the visitors, will tonight vs. the New York Rangers give the Leafs their biggest test in over a week?
With NHL odds pricing the Buds as -125 road favorites, these narratives seemed to be priced into the moneyline but because of being priced as just short favorites, the Leafs’ player props have dropped across the board.
Find out how to take advantage in my best NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Rangers below.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers best odds
Maple Leafs vs Rangers picks and predictions
I don’t always suggest betting heavily juiced lines, but where there's value, there's value.
Auston Matthews’ shot total is sitting at 3.5, which is not something we often see as it closed at 4.5 (juiced to the Over) vs. the generous Ducks on Tuesday. His SOG market has closed at 3.5 twice over his last 10 games and he went well Over in both of those games (eight and six shots) as Matthews has been heating up of late.
He has a goal in six of his last eight games, including 36 shots on goal over that stretch. He's 22-8 O/U on his 3.5 SOG total and sits fifth in the league in shots on net, while the four skaters above him consistently close at 4.5 in the market. Only three other players have more shot attempts than Matthews this season.
After the 7-0 win Tuesday, Matthews didn’t play his usual 20 minutes and got a little rest in the third period. He’ll be ready to put on a show in the Mecca tonight. His line with William Nylander and Michael Bunting has been playing great hockey since being put together.
I have Matthews projected for more than 5.0 shots tonight in a game that should have a neutral game script keeping him in attack mode.
My best bet: Auston Matthews Over 3.5 shots on goal (-182 at SportsInteraction)
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Maple Leafs vs Rangers moneyline analysis
Over the last 30 days, the Leafs have the best point percentage at .893 with an 11-0-3 record and a +2.07 goal differential per game (!). That’s thanks to a league-best 1.86 GAA over that stretch as this team has committed to team defense and is getting great goaltending to boot.
Confirmed starter Matt Murray is coming off a weak performance vs. the Flames but thanks to Sheldon Keefe getting every skater to protect the net, this is a Toronto team that has three shutouts over its last four games with Murray collecting one vs. the Stars as +105 road dogs in a 44-save effort.
#Leafs lines during practice Dec. 14/22
— David Alter (@dalter) December 14, 2022
Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Malgin-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-Kampf-Engvall
AstonReese-Holmberg-Anderson
Extra (Simmonds)
Giordano-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Brodie-Timmins
Benn(IR)-Hollowell@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR
Since the beginning of November, the Leafs have played eight road games and were a favorite in just one of them. They went 7-0-1 in that stretch with wins vs. some of the best teams in hockey. However, when you consider Toronto was +105 in Dallas and are now -125 in New York, there is a noticeable price adjustment here on the ML.
To me, this isn’t anything to find value in. The Leafs were undervalued in many of those road games as the injuries to the blue line were significant but the Leafs showed they could overcome them. Now, they are getting healthier with TJ Brodie back, the bottom-six forwards contributing a little, while the top-two lines have been the best in hockey.
Mitch Marner is riding a 23-game point streak, Auston Matthews has quietly been heating up with goals in six of his last eight, Michael Bunting has a point in nine straight, William Nylander is on pace for 47 goals, and John Tavares has 30 points in 30 games.
Toronto has a great balance of high-end offense but a commitment to its own end. The Rangers are a tough task, but the Leafs have been playing their best hockey in a decade and it will take an off game for them to lose in regulation right now.
The Rangers have no injuries and are on a four-game winning streak but they’re also giving up a goal per game more than than the Leafs over the last 30 days. Igor Shesterkin has two good starts over his last eight games and those came against a Colorado team missing most of its top-six skaters and the Knights without Jack Eichel.
The Leafs have the advantage at 5-on-5 with the third-best goal differential at even strength behind the Devils and Bruins. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t generated many quality chances at even strength this season and sits 27th in high-danger chances.
Considering the Rangers' offense has managed more than two power plays just twice over its last six games, while the Leafs have taken just five minor penalties in their last three games, this game could be played heavily at 5-on-5.
At -125, it’s hard not to take the Leafs here, the only worrisome thing is Murray’s weak performance vs. the Flames (-2.32 GSAx) but he has been incredibly consistent this season and worth trusting at -125.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams have been profitable to the Under this season and that’s why we’re seeing a total of 6, which is just the third time in 11 games the Leafs haven’t opened at 6.5.
Toronto is coming off a seven-goal game vs. the Ducks but Anaheim is the whipping boy of the NHL right now and is basically an AHL team. On the season, the Leafs have played just two games that have seen more than seven goals as their defensive strengths and great goaltending have been keeping things low.
On the season, the Leafs are seeing a total of just 5.66 goals per game, the second-lowest total behind only the Hurricanes. A lot of that has to do with how well Toronto has played at even strength, as only the Bruins have allowed fewer 5-on-5 goals this season.
The Rangers have scored 17 goals over their current four-game winning streak but they had failed to score more than three goals in their previous six games before that. They rank 19th in goals per game at 3.07 and their 2.80 GAA is a Top-10 mark.
Finally, when looking at the Over, I always want both teams to score three goals as I feel that’s the most probable way to hit the over as getting a 5-2 win without empty-net help is not a common occurrence.
On the season, the Leafs and Rangers are seeing both teams score three goals at a 26% rate or in 16 of their combined 60 games. Both teams to score three goals is priced at +190 which is a 34.5% implied probability which I think is short and should be closer to +230. The Under might have a little value tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 7-1 in their last eight road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Rangers.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, December 15, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, MSG |
Maple Leafs vs Rangers key injuries
