Coming off a 2-1 shorthanded win last night vs. the Predators, the Toronto Maple Leafs head to Michigan to take on a Detroit Red Wings team the Buds beat 4-1 less than a week ago.
Toronto has successfully dealt with injuries all season, and now with both Auston Matthews and TJ Brodie out, it's reverting to its shutdown game that made it one of the most profitable Under teams earlier in the season.
Can Detroit’s offense keep its foot on the gas after its seven-goal performance against Winnipeg? Find out in my NHL betting picks and predictions for the Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings best odds
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings picks and predictions
The Red Wings are coming off a thrashing of the Jets in a 7-5 win, but don’t let that offensive outburst fool you. The goals were soft and they finished with just 2.67 expected goals with a 79% probability of losing that game, per Money Puck.
Bettors should not be afraid to hit the Detroit team total Under 2.5 for good plus money today, as the Leafs are a different team when shorthanded and the Red Wings are a Bottom-10 offense.
Toronto is without Auston Matthews and defenseman TJ Brodie, but held a similar offense in Nashville to a single goal last night. Goalie Matt Murray played well, but Ilya Samsonov is coming off a one-goal performance vs. this same team less than a week ago where Detroit managed just 23 shots — including just five in the final frame.
The Buds have played without top defensemen all season, and it wasn’t until Morgan Rielly returned they got away from the great defensive game that made them the most profitable Under team in hockey before the Christmas break.
Toronto has allowed the fourth fewest goals at 5-on-5 and its penalty kill has been perfect for three straight games. On the season, the Buds have held their opponents to two or fewer goals in 53% of their games and in 85% of the team’s 26 wins.
Toronto has also fared well on the second game in as many nights with a 5-0-1 record on the second game of a back-to-back, including wins vs. the Penguins, Hurricanes, and Capitals. In all of those wins, the Leafs held their opponents to two or fewer goals.
Detroit also has been owned by Toronto over a good set of meetings. The Wings haven't beaten the Leafs in regulation since 2017, and Toronto is 22-6 SU in the last 28 meetings, including 5-0 SU in the last five games in Motor City.
Add in a price of +145 for the Red Wings’ team total Under 2.5, and we’ve got ourselves a best bet tonight. I think the Leafs are showing value on the moneyline at -145, but with 22 of their 26 wins coming when they hold their opponents to two or fewer goals, the Detroit team total Under 2.5 is better value.
My best bet: Red Wings team total Under 2.5 (+145 at bet365)
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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings moneyline analysis
The Leafs played a solid game of hockey last night in a 2-1 win in regulation vs. the Predators as -175 home favorites.
Toronto has been without the majority of its top defensemen all season and has played a better defensive game without them. It might not make much sense, but without the big blueliners (and Matthews’ defensive game), Sheldon Keefe has stressed a defensive game that has resonated with the team. Adding new bodies to the lineup also keeps legs fresh and motivation high.
We’re likely to see the same performance tonight, and with Ilya Samsonov getting on the right side of his game in his last outing (a 4-1 Toronto win at home vs. Detroit last Saturday night), it's an easier team to trust tonight.
The Leafs dominated Saturday's game vs. Detroit and allowed just 23 shots. They held the Wings to one goal and 1.9 expected goals, including shutting things down late with five shots allowed in the third period.
Toronto closed as a -350 favorite last Saturday which was the third-shortest it has been all year. Now the Buds sit as -140 road favorites vs. a rested Detroit team that is coming off a 7-5 win vs. the Jets on Tuesday.
Honestly, the Leafs at -140 seems long here. That’s a 200-point swing which includes changing venues (50 points max), a back-to-back (50 points), and the loss of Brodie and Matthews which is about 30 points. Lost in this is the structure and success the Leafs have when playing shorthanded, which is a simpler game that will match up well vs. a poor offensive team like the Wings.
The seven-goal outburst Tuesday was uncharacteristic of tonight’s underdogs, who are scoring goals at a Bottom 7 rate since December 1. Both their power play and penalty kill rank in the Bottom 10 of the league and confirmed starter Ville Husso is struggling as well.
The first-year Wing has allowed at least three goals in seven straight games and owns a 5.71 GAA and a .852 SV%. Those numbers are pathetic, to be honest, and even without Matthews, Toronto still has elite scoring talent and has been electric on the power play with a goal in seven straight.
Despite the injuries and schedule spot, this is a very decent price for the Leafs at -145 who are 5-0-1 on the backend of a back-to-back.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Over/Under analysis
The Leafs were the league’s best Under teams through the first two months of hockey and that’s when they had four starting defensemen on the shelf. Through October and November, they had the league’s third-best GAA (2.48) and allowed the fourth fewest shots at 28.8.
Toronto showed this same style last night in its 2-1 win, and with Ilya Samsonov getting a solid start under his belt after a rough patch, I’m more confident in the Under 6.5 tonight.
In the meeting last Saturday, the total closed at 6.5 and -125 to the Over. I’m expecting some money to come in for the Under today as the loss of Matthews is big, and Samsonov doesn’t look like a goalie to blindly fade anymore — especially when I’m projecting the Leafs to give up less than 30 shots tonight.
Husso has been awful of late, but with Detroit's lack of depth scoring, a 4-2 or 5-1 Toronto win is in play tonight.
I like the Under 6.5 and think it will close closer to 6 tonight, but a Red Wing team total Under 2.5 at +145 (bet365) is a much better avenue for bettors with a great price.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 22-6 in the last 28 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Red Wings.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings game info
| Location: | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, January 12, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, TSN4 |
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings key injuries
