The Toronto Maple Leafs hit the road to face the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday evening at KeyBank Center.
Toronto is still smarting after losing 5-3 on the road against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks, spoiling Ryan O’Reilly's debut. However, fellow newcomer Noel Acciari was able to light the lamp during his first game in blue and white.
Meanwhile, Buffalo doubled up the San Jose Sharks last time out while winning 4-2. The Sabres also picked up victories during the final two games of a three-game California trip after losing in Los Angeles this past Monday.
This is the second of three regular-season meetings between the two squads, and the only game in Buffalo. Toronto won the first clash 5-2 at Scotiabank Arena.
Can the Sabres level the season series? Or will the Maple Leafs score a rare victory across the Peace Bridge? Let's examine the matchup in our NHL betting picks for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres best odds
Maple Leafs vs Sabres picks and predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs traded for Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari, and they were expecting to hit the ground running. Instead, Toronto fell 5-3 on the road against the last-place Chicago Blackhawks and rookie goaltender Jaxson Stauber. That’s not exactly what GM Kyle Dubas and Leafs Nation had in mind.
Toronto has been spinning its wheels lately, going just 4-4 across its past eight games, including three defeats against losing teams.
Still, the Maple Leafs are generally good at bouncing back after an abysmal performance, going 7-1 in their past eight contests after allowing five-plus goals in the previous outing.
The Buffalo Sabres are back home for the first time since Feb. 11, which was a disappointing 7-2 setback against the Calgary Flames. Buffalo was dropped 5-1 at home against the Carolina Hurricanes prior to that game.
The Sabres haven’t beaten a winning team at home in regulation since Jan. 7 against the Detroit Red Wings.
The Maple Leafs rolled to an easy win over the Sabres earlier in the season behind Matt Murray, but he's sidelined indefinitely due to an ankle injury. As such, Ilya Samsonov will look to rebound after an ugly showing in Chitown.
The Sabres are a strong play as a moderate underdog, as they've generally played well against the Leafs on home ice, even when they’ve been one of the league's worst teams. Buffalo has posted a 38-16-2 mark in its previous 56 home meetings against Toronto. The Sabres will add to that on Tuesday.
My best bet: Sabres ML (+146 at Sports Interaction)
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Maple Leafs vs Sabres spread analysis
The Maple Leafs cost bettors more than three times their potential return as a giant favorite against the Blackhawks. It was a cautionary tale about betting huge favorites in the NHL, especially on the road.
Toronto has managed a 4-3 record in its past seven games as a favorite, all at -150 or higher. The team is also 4-3 on the puck line in its previous seven as a favorite, too.
The Sabres are 0-4 in their past four games as an underdog, and Buffalo is also 0-4 in its previous four as a home ‘dog dating back to Dec. 13.
Buffalo has done a very good job on the puck line overall lately, going 11-6 in its past 17 as an underdog.
And the Sabres have been dominating this series, especially at home. The home team is also 38-15 in the past 53 clashes.
Usually when Leafs fans make the trip down the QEW to KeyBank Center, the journey ends in disappointment. Tuesday should be no different.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs have lit the lamp three-plus times in each of the past five games, cashing the Over in three of the previous four games overall.
For Toronto, it’s been hit or miss in the defense and goaltending departments, allowing four-plus goals in four of the past eight games.
The Sabres have scored two-plus goals in four straight and in 11 of the past 12. The team has allowed two-plus goals in 25 consecutive outings since a shutout win Dec. 13.
The Over is 6-2 in the past eight games for the Sabres when playing on two days of rest, and 6-2 in the past eight games inside the Atlantic Division. The Over also cashed in the first meeting between these teams in 2022-23.
Play the Over, and pair it with the home side for a potentially lucrative parlay opportunity.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres betting trend to know
The Over is 22-8-4 in the past 34 meetings in this series, including 15-5-2 in the previous 22 games at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Sabres.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres game info
| Location: | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 21, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
Maple Leafs vs Sabres key injuries
