Maple Leafs vs Sabres Picks and Predictions: Leafs Continue Their Ascent

Both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres are coming off wins last night, but it’s Toronto that has to do the traveling for this back-to-back. The Leafs have won seven of their last eight and allowed just nine goals in their last six, while the Sabres snapped a five-game losing streak last night with a win over Edmonton.

Toronto (9-6 SU) opened at -180 on the ML and moved quickly to -200. Toronto back-up goalie Joseph Woll will be making his first NHL start Saturday while the Sabres (6-7 SU) will likely counter with Aaron Dell. 

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres for Saturday, November 13.

Maple Leafs vs Sabres odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Maple Leafs vs Sabres picks

• Toronto 3-way ML (-120)
• Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-115)

Picks made on 11/13/2021 at 9:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Sabres game info

• Location: Keybank Center, Buffalo, NY
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, SNO, SN Pacific

Maple Leafs vs Sabres betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Sabres: Victor Olofsson F (Out), Craig Anderson G (Out), Alex Tuch F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Sabres head-to-head record (since 2018)

Maple Leafs: 8-2 SU, 37 goals for.
Sabres: 2-8 SU, 27 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 7-2 in the last nine meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.

Maple Leafs vs Sabres picks and predictions

Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-120)

The Maple Leafs eked out a come-from-behind OT win last night and needed the big boys to bail them out again. William Nylander’s shot tied the game, 1-1, midway through the third, while Auston Matthews scored the winner in the fourth frame. Toronto dominated the game (76.7 percent win probability and won xgoals 4.44 to 2.57, per MoneyPuck) and found a way to win against a physical Calgary team and a hot goalie in Dan Vladar. The competition and goaltending could be easier on Saturday in Buffalo but with a backup Joseph Woll making his first start in the NHL and traveling to Buffalo, can we trust the inflated price of the Leafs?

Woll has played just three games for the Leafs' AHL affiliates, the Marlies, this year, and in his three years with the Baby Leafs, he has yet to post a save percentage above .900. The Buffalo offense is league-average, sitting at 2.90 goals per game but sits 31st in expected goals for at 2.26. The Leafs and coach Sheldon Keefe have committed to playing sound defensive hockey and are allowing just 1.89 goals per game over the last two weeks — third-best in the league. Sure, Jack Campbell has a lot to do with those numbers, but the boys will want to play a tight game for Woll in his first start.

Now the traveling aspect. This is just the second B2B game the Leafs will be playing this season, and the first one was a 3-2 loss to the Senators back on October 14. It’s tough to use that game as a reference point as this team has grown since its early-season slump. 

The Toronto offense is still not putting up elite numbers as it should, but it's faced some incredible goaltending and defensive teams of late. Carter Hart, Andrei Vaslivskiy, the Bruins, Jonathan Quick and Robin Lehner. Those names might not jump out at you, but those are possibly all Top-10 goalies right now, while Vladar was great last night. Playing a goalie like Dell, who has yet to make an NHL start this season and posted a 4.14 GAA a season ago in seven starts, might be just the thing this Toronto offense needs. 

The Leafs’ power play went 0 for 3 last night, but had scored in six straight games previously and is still creating a ton of chances. The Sabres have been getting crushed on the penalty kill over their last three games, have allowed five PP goals, and have been shorthanded 13 times over those three games. The Toronto penalty kill is also 15 for its last 16.   

The Sabres are fading after a hot start and have dropped seven of their last 10 with four of those by two or more goals. This is not an easy price to swallow, but Edmonton came into Buffalo on the backend of a B2B last night and was paying -190 on the ML. The Oilers dominated the game but failed to win. The chances of Buffalo pulling off B2B wins versus the Oilers and Leafs is close to 11 percent. The Leafs play a solid game in front of the rookie, get the PP going again and win this in regulation.

Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-115)

We were on the Over 5.5 last night, and despite an xgoal total of nearly 7.0 goals, it wasn’t even close. Campbell and Vladar were solid and ruined any chances of the Over. The Under win pushed the Leafs' record to 5-10 O/U on the season, which ties for the best Under mark in hockey. Last night we got a 5.5, but today the books have opened with a 6 that’s leaning to the Under.

The Leafs’ play at 5-on-5 over the last two weeks has been impressive. They’ve allowed just nine even-strength goals over their last seven games and have had to play some of the best teams at 5-on-5 over that stretch. Offensively, the Leafs are scoring under 2.00 goals at even strength since October 29, and although the metrics say more goals are coming, the fact is that they haven’t despite xgoal metrics proving otherwise. 

Betting against backup goalies is a very public move, but teams play differently in front of the No. 2s, and even more so when it’s a kid making his first NHL start. The Leafs know Campbell can bail them out and can take more chances with the puck because of that, but with Woll between the pipes, we might see a more conservative Leafs team Saturday with defensemen pinching less and forwards skating harder to come back.

Can we trust the Sabres on the Under, though? Dell is a below-average NHL goalie and allowed three or more goals in five of his seven starts last year. Before last night, Buffalo had also conceded 19 goals over its last four games, and opposing teams have scored three or more goals in seven of their last 10 games. They’ve taken the fourth-most penalties per game over the last two weeks and boast a bottom-10 penalty kill to boot. 

We like the Leafs to run up the score in this one and don’t trust the Under, with too many variables, including a pair of back-ups and both teams having played last night. We’re going to pivot here and take the Leafs’ team total of 3.5 and hit the Over at -115. 

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