Maple Leafs vs Sabres Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

Our Maple Leafs vs. Sabres predictions expect Auston Matthews to do what he does best.

Mike DiStefano - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Mike DiStefano • Betting Analyst
Dec 15, 2024 • 10:25 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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We’ve got five games on the betting slate tonight, including an Atlantic Division clash between the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.

The Sabres have been the NHL’s worst team over the past few weeks, and stopping pucks has been a key issue during this rough stretch. That's why my Maple Leafs vs. Sabres predictions back Auston Matthews to rip one home tonight. 

Find out why in my NHL picks for today's showdown.

Maple Leafs vs Sabres prediction

My Leafs pick
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (-105 at Sports Interaction)

My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to get back into the win column after a loss to Detroit on Saturday night. It was the team’s third loss in five games. However, that’s nowhere near as bad as the slump the Buffalo Sabres are in after their ninth straight loss last night.

Buffalo’s biggest issue over this nine-game losing streak has been their inability to stop pucks. Throughout the losing skid, Buffalo’s team save percentage is just .870, which ranks 29th in the NHL over that stretch. Even worse has been the team’s high-danger save percentage, which ranks dead last at .709%.

Thus, I’m looking at Toronto's goalscorers for tonight’s game, and there’s one player who’s consistently torched Buffalo. That player would be none other than Auston Matthews. The captain has 19 goals in 26 games against the Sabres throughout his nine-year career. He’s also scored in five straight meetings against Buffalo, netting seven total goals over that span.

He’s also started to look more like his old self over the past few games. He’s averaging 4.66 shots per game and has been getting many quality looks. One of which found the back of the net in last night’s loss to Detroit. 

Additionally, he ranks fourth in high-danger chances among all NHLers with at least 250 minutes at 5-on-5 play. That matches up well against Buffalo, which has given up the ninth-most high-danger chances since November 24.

If he’s his usual self tonight, the Leafs captain should be able to extend his streak and put one up on the board. 

Maple Leafs vs Sabres same-game parlay (SGP)

Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer

Auston Matthews 4+ shots

Leafs moneyline

We’ll mirror a Matthews goal with his shots prop and take him to register 4+ shots on goal. He averages 4.23 shots per game and has reached this total in five of his last six games. He’s also hit the total in four of the last five meetings against the Sabres.

I’m also taking the Leafs on the moneyline. Toronto is 13-4 on home ice this season, outscoring its opponents 53-34. Plus, Buffalo is on a nine-game skid and traveling across the border for the second leg of a back-to-back.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Maple Leafs vs Sabres odds

Maple Leafs vs Sabres live odds

Maple Leafs vs Sabres opening odds

  • Puck line: Toronto -1.5 (+125) | Buffalo +1.5 (-150)
  • Moneyline: Toronto -200 | Buffalo +165
  • Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Maple Leafs vs Sabres trend

The Over is 5-3-2 in the last 10 games between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.

How to watch Maple Leafs vs Sabres

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Sunday, 12-15-2024
Puck drop: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN4

Maple Leafs vs Sabres latest injuries

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Mike DiStefano - Covers
Betting Analyst

Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN's flagship radio/tv show "OverDrive" as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.

A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.

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