Maple Leafs vs Stars Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Matthews Comes up Big in Texas

After just a single game on Wednesday, the NHL is back to an 11 game slate tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Dallas Stars.

The Buds have excelled in this matchup of late thanks to the superb play of Auston Matthews. However, the NHL odds suggest Dallas could flip the script and end their four-game losing streak to the Leafs.

Will they be able to contain Matthews to get it done? Find out in my free NHL picks for this October 26 matchup.

Maple Leafs vs Stars odds

Maple Leafs vs Stars predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 4-2 on the year, coming off a 4-1 win over Washington. Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars have yet to lose in regulation and boast a 4-0-1 record for the young season.

Toronto has owned this matchup over the past few years, winning four straight meetings overall. The Maple Leafs have also traveled well, winning five in a row on the road in Dallas.

A big part of that success has been the sheer dominance of Auston Matthews in these contests. The American sniper has nine goals in just nine games against Dallas.

Ten in 10 has a ring to it, doesn’t it?

Despite the Stars being a top-end team with top-tier goaltending, they’ve struggled mightily against the Leafs of late. Dallas has lost four straight against Toronto while being outscored 15-5. Matthews missed one of the games due to injury and still had three goals on 18 shots in the other three games.

According to NHL Edge, Matthews leads the league in high-danger shots, with 17 of them coming from the slot or inner-slot. It’s safe to say that keeping Matthews out of this area will be key for Dallas. However, shot prevention has been a struggle for them so far this season, as they’re giving up an average of 33.2 shots per game. 

Matthews averages over five shots per game, with 54% of them coming from high-scoring areas. That should provide him with ample opportunity to try and get one past Jake Oettinger.

Additionally, Matthews could have a little extra motivation in tonight’s game. 

Last season, Dallas was super physical with the star forward in the November meeting, and Matthews reportedly suffered an injury through that game, which lingered long into the year. It’s been widely speculated that the injury in that game was a partial reason for his ‘down season.’ Perhaps that gives him some internal bulletin board material to hurt them back on the score sheet.

My best bet: Auston Matthews anytime goal (+115 at SIA)

Maple Leafs vs Stars same-game parlay

Matthews anytime goal

Maple Leafs +1.5

Under 6.5

+360 at SIA

For tonight’s same-game parlay, we’re expecting a tight hockey game that Auston Matthews inevitably factors into.

For the first leg of the parlay, I’ll use my best bet for Matthews to score. He’s been outstanding to start the season with seven goals through six games. He’s scored nine times in nine games against Dallas, and I like for him to make it 10 in 10 tonight.

Next up, let’s take Under 6.5 goals. There are some talented offensive players on both teams, but the goaltending matchup is the reason why this one may go Under the total. The Under is 6-0 when Oettinger and Joseph Woll start games this year. 

Both netminders have been elite, with each sporting identical 1.44 GAAs and save percentages north of .950. Also, there’s a rivalry here with Woll going to Boston College at the same time Oettinger tended the goal at Boston University. I expect to see the best of both goalies tonight.

Additionally, the Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two clubs, with Toronto blanking the Stars twice, including their last meeting in Dallas.

For the final leg of my parlay, I like the Leafs to cover the spread (+1.5). Toronto matches up well against an older, slower Dallas team. The Leafs have won four straight against the Stars and could very well make it five in a row tonight, but getting a goal and a half as the underdogs is a comforting buffer just in case Oettinger is one save better than Woll.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Maple Leafs vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Dallas opened as -125 favorites on the moneyline, with Toronto being declared the underdog (+105) for the first time all season. Betting on the road dog may not be a bad play, though. Toronto has won four straight against Dallas and eight of the last 10 meetings. The Leafs have a knack for playing up to their opponent, so it wouldn’t shock me to see them pull off the upset in Dallas, where they’ve won five in a row.

With a lot of money coming in on the Over, the total moved from 6 to 6.5 goals. With the new total, the Over pays +100 with the Under giving -120 odds. The Under is 7-3-1 combined for the two teams this year and 6-0 when Woll and Oettinger get the start. Getting that extra half-goal should give you a little more comfort in the Under.

Maple Leafs vs Stars betting trend to know

The road team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Stars.

Maple Leafs vs Stars game info

Maple Leafs vs Stars latest injuries

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