The battle of Alberta is alive and well and this should be a fun NHL betting matchup tonight as the Calgary Flames are, well, flaming hot and the Edmonton Oilers are still trying to figure out their identity.
The Oilers have gotten the best of their rivals in each of the last three meetings but they have lost their last two games in a row to pretty weak opponents. The Flames have emerged as one of the best teams in the NHL, becoming a legitimate contender on the Stanley Cup odds board, so it seems logical to lean with the home favorites.
But is that what our free NHL picks and predictions are going to do? Find out as we break down the latest Oilers vs. Flames matchup on Monday, March 7.
Oilers vs Flames odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Flames opened up as heavy favorites at -162 and the line has moved even further in their favor at the time of writing, now sitting at -185 to -200 range. The total opened up at 6.5 and hasn’t had any movement, still sitting at that number, shaded towards the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Oilers vs Flames predictions
Predictions made on 3/7/2022 at 10:42 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oilers vs Flames game info
• Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
• Date: Monday, March 7, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Rogers Sportsnet
Oilers vs Flames betting preview
Key injuries
Oilers: Tyson Barrie D (Out), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C (Out), Jesse Puljujarvi RW (Out), Evan Bouchard D (Day-to-Day), Mike Smith G (Out), Josh Archibald RW (Out), Kris Russel D (Out), Zach Kassian F (Out).
Flames: None to report.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Oilers vs Flames head-to-head record (since 2021)
Oilers: 7-3-0 SU, 38 goals for.
Flames: 3-7-0 SU, 26 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Flames.
Oilers vs Flames picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
It might come as a surprise that the Oilers have defeated the Flames in both contests this year (and three straight dating back to last season), but tonight Calgary will look for some much-needed revenge. In the Flames' defense, both games were played in Edmonton, so tonight they will be happy to take this rivalry back to the Scotiabank Saddledome, where they are 15-4-5 this season.
The Flames are becoming one of the NHL’s most feared teams to play against. They are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, including two wins against Minnesota and a win over Colorado. During this span, they have scored 43 goals and surrendered just 27 as goalie Jacob Markstrom has had a breakout season, sporting a 25-11-6 record with a .925 SV% and ranking 13th with 8.9 Goals Saved Above Expected.
Calgary's defense has also done an incredible job in front of Markstrom, making his job much easier by only allowing 29.3 shots on goal per game, which is a major contributor to why the Flames have the third-best scoring defense at just 2.46 goals against per contest — but tonight they face a tough challenge against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who lead a fast-paced Edmonton offense.
That said, the Flames' offensive success should not go unnoticed. They have the sixth-best offensive production in scoring 3.48 goals per game, and the 10th-best power play as they convert on 23.1% of their chances. Johnny Gaudreau has exploded this year and is currently in fourth place in the scoring race with 71 points (22 G, 49 A), in 54 games while Matthew Tkachuk is also in the Top 10 with 64 points (27 G, 37 A) in 54 games.
While the Oilers have two of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, their scoring has actually fallen off as of late. They were ranked in the Top 5 for the majority of the season, but have now slipped to 10th at 3.23 gpg as Edmonton has topped three goals just once in is last seven games.
They rely heavily on their two superstars, McDavid and Draisaitl, as both of them have 79 points on the season — but Edmonton's third-leading scorer is Zach Hyman... who only has 37 points. There is a massive drop-off in Edmonton’s offensive production, so Calgary’s focus in this game (like most teams have done lately) will be to shut down McDavid and Draisaitl and let someone else beat you.
When these teams last met on January 22, Draisaitl took over, potting two goals and two assists, while McDavid also had two assists of his own. If the Flames can slow these two down, they should be able to dominate for 60 minutes on home ice.
Prediction: Flames moneyline (-185)
Over/Under analysis
Both meetings between these two teams this season have gone over, so offense is most definitely a common trend when they meet. Calgary’s offense has been flying thanks to the play of Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm and these three will look to take advantage of a subpar Edmonton blue line as the Oilers give up 3.21 gpg.
Making things easier for Calgary should be finding holes in the Oilers' shaky goaltending. Mikko Koskinen is getting the nod in goal for Edmonton tonight and while his record is solid this year, it definitely outshines his scary underlying metrics. Koskinen is 19-8-3 this season, but he has a 3.05 GAA, .904 SV% and -5.5 GSAx. If he didn’t have a Top-10 offense to bail him out every night, his record would be significantly worse.
The Oilers' identity is simply based on two players. When people think of this team, "offense" is the first thing that comes to mind — and when we say “offense,” we don’t mean team offense, we're referring to McDavid and Draisaitl. The things that these two can do offensively are befitting of generational talents, so even though Calgary will spend all its energy focusing on shutting that duo down... big players get up for big games and we should expect that from these two tonight.
The Flames should have no issues in the offensive end tonight, but it is very hard to count out Edmonton’s scoring ability — even with how good Markstrom and Calgary’s defense has been this season. We think Edmonton will find a way to keep this game entertaining and competitive — and we're relying on the offenses to shine.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (+100)
Best bet
There is a common theme that the home team in this rivalry typically prevails. It just so happens that the home team in tonight’s matchup has also been far and away the better hockey club as of late.
It’s not an accident that the Flames are in first place in the Pacific division and they definitely have a bad taste in their mouths after losing two straight to their biggest rivals.
Edmonton has had back-to-back tough losses against legitimately inferior teams (Montreal and Chicago), so they are coming into this contest lacking some confidence. The Oilers have always lacked consistent goaltending, which is an area Calgary can exploit. The Flames might not have quite the same top-end talent offensively, but they have a massive advantage in terms of offensive depth and blue line talent.
It isn’t a crazy statement to say that the Flames have the offensive advantage in this matchup and they also have the significantly better defense and goaltender. The only clear-cut advantage the Oilers have going into this one is their power play. Edmonton’s man-advantage unit is currently ranked fourth, converting at a 25.6% rate, but Calgary happens to be very strong on the penalty kill, so this isn’t necessarily a game-changing edge for the Oilers.
It is obvious to me that the Flames are the better team and have been playing very well as of late. Calgary shouldn’t have any issues tonight and they should be able to dominate for the entire 60 minutes.
Considering the Flames moneyline is a little pricy at -185, we can bring that juice down by taking Calgary to win in regulation tonight.
Pick: Flames 3-way moneyline (-120)
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