The Edmonton Oilers are on the ropes after dropping Game 5 in overtime to the Los Angeles Kings at home, and now have to win on the road tonight to force a Game 7 Saturday.
Can Connor McDavid and company bounce back and force this series back across the border or will L.A. put Edmonton to bed? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Kings.
Oilers vs Kings odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Oilers oped as -155 moneyline road favorites but have seen a lack of confidence in the market as they've moved to -140 as of Thursday morning. The total sits at 6.5 and leans to the Under. Edmonton closed as -140 road favorites in Game 3 and -165 road favorites in Game 4. The total has closed at 6.5 in three of the five games in this series.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Oilers vs Kings predictions
Predictions made on 5/12/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oilers vs Kings game info
• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, May 12, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS, CBC
Oilers vs Kings series odds (LAK leads 3-2)
Oilers: +150
Kings: -170
Oilers vs Kings betting preview
Key injuries
Oilers: Darnell Nurse D (Out).
Kings: Viktor Arvidsson F (Questionable), Drew Doughty D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Oilers vs Kings head-to-head record in the series
Oilers: 2-3 SU, 21 goals for.
Kings: 3-2 SU, 15 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Oilers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Kings.
Oilers vs Kings picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Following Edmonton’s 5-4 overtime loss on home ice two days ago, Connor McDavid wasn’t shy about discussing his team's effort in keeping the puck out of the net. Well, the Oilers now find themselves one loss away from being eliminated by the Los Angeles Kings regardless of who is to blame for the team's performance.
"We scored four tonight, that needs to be enough to win a playoff game. Obviously, it's not."
— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) May 11, 2022
- Connor McDavid on Game 5 loss. pic.twitter.com/G6rn8LH0D0
Through five games, the Oilers have outscored the Kings 22 to 15 but trail the series three games to two. However, Edmonton has lost the possession game in three straight and the xgoal battle in two straight. They’ve also given up at least 43 shots in three straight games, making Mike Smith's nights busier tham he'd hoped.
Coming into the series, Smith was a giant question mark. He was hot down the stretch in the regular season, but following Game 2’s 6-0 shutout win, the 40-year-old goalie has allowed 10 goals.
In his defense, he's been seeing a lot of rubber and still posted a .925 SV% over the last three games. McDavid might be calling out the team to stop the puck, but Smith has been under siege and has actually held his own.
Making things even worse for the visitors is defenseman Darnell Nurse who will be watching this game from the sidelines after getting a one-game suspension for a head-butt that would have made Bam Bam Bigelow proud.
His loss on the blueline will be big as he leads the team in ice time and kills penalties. If the Oilers allowed 88 shots on net over their last two losses with Nurse in the lineup, the Kings could continue to get pucks on net and expose this weak defensive team that finished 21st in xGoals against at 5-on-5 during the regular season.
Without Nurse, this is an Edmonton blueline that will feature Tyson Barrie, Cody Ceci, and Duncan Keith. Los Angeles isn't an offensive powerhouse by any means, but if it can win the possession and scoring chance battle with Nurse in the lineup, it should be able to do it again without the rearguard tonight.
The Kings are just 2-for-20 with the man advantage, which is good news for LAK backers as this team has found plenty of ways to score at 5-on-5 in the series, and any extra help on the power play is a welcomed surprise.
Jonathan Quick’s numbers aren’t pretty through five games but in the games that he's won, he's looked sharp and even shut out this Edmonton offense in the last game in California.
Edmonton comes into tonight 2-9 straight up over its last 11 games as a playoff favorite and there is more pressure on it here which doesn’t always produce better results.
The market has also started to move in favor of the home dogs and that’s where we are leaning tonight. McDavid might be on a mission but this is an Oilers team that is giving up too many scoring chances to back on the road as favorites.
Prediction: Kings moneyline (+120 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Over is 3-2 so far in the series with the two Unders hitting on a pair of shutouts. In total, 46 combined goals have been scored in the series, good for 7.20 average total goals per game. Each game has seen a ton of shots on net and the series is averaging 74 combined shots per game.
Quick owns a 3.79 GAA and a .887 SV% through five games and has been pulled once. He's also seen a heavy dose of Edmonton's power play that has scored at least two goals in three of the five games and has a success rate of 41.2% — good for second best in the playoffs. Even the second PP unit for the Oilers has contributed.
It hasn’t been all roses for the favorites as the Kings find themselves with a 3-2 series lead despite managing just two power-play goals themselves. They have been doing some damage at 5-on-5 vs. an Edmonton team that came into the postseason with the worst xGoals against at even strength of the 16 teams.
Not having one of its better defenders and penalty killers in Nurse is also a huge blow to the visiting side, who was already giving up a ton of scoring chances coming into this potential series-ending game.
Over the last two matchups, Los Angeles has created more high-danger chances, has 95 scoring chances to Edmonton’s 70, and has 228 shot attempts compared to the Oiler's 205.
The Kings are playing a near-perfect underdog game plan which is to get pucks to the net and take advantage of a weak blueline that will be even weaker tonight. They are leading this series despite having a goalie that owns a .887 SV%.
No L.A. skater currently sits in the Top 25 in playoff points and that’s likely fine by Todd McLellan who is getting some depth scoring, as nine separate players have recorded a goal while the team has scored just 15 in total.
We also aren’t too worried about Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault shutting things down on the other end of the ice and turning this into a battle for ice. In the two games played in L.A., there were a total of 17 expected goals created.
We love a good Over in an elimination game as the losing team could go all out trying to play catchup and open themselves to a counter or concede an unusual empty-net goal. We doubt Smith or Quick shut the door entirely tonight.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-105 at bet365)
Best bet
With the Oilers on the ropes and McDavid not exactly happy about Game 5’s outcome, he’ll be on a mission tonight. With Darnell Nurse out, the team will likely have to score three-plus goals to win the game and stay alive.
McDavid has two goals and nine points in the series, but led the team in shot attempts in Game 5 with 10, and looks like he has that goalscorer mindset heading into Game 6.
His Over 1.5 point market sits at -120 so getting him to score for +130 when he's shooting more is a price we’re willing to ride. Sometimes the game just looks easy for him.
Connor McDavid flys by everyone for his 1st goal in the playoffs #LetsGoOilers pic.twitter.com/Nl8p237puD
— Puljujarvi Enjoyer (@dhockey13) May 3, 2022
No player can take over a game like McDavid and he has the skill set to do it all by himself if he has to. Edmonton has scored 21 goals in the four games excluding the shutout so it can get to Quick no problem. We still love the Kings here but if the Oilers are trailing, McDavid could turn this game into a 1-on-5 battle.
Pick: Connor McDavid to score a goal (+130 at bet365)
Stats from Covers, Moneypuck, Natural Stat Trick, and NHL
