The Tampa Bay Lightning will finally get back to the ice tonight as they welcome the Edmonton Oilers to Amalie Arena after a seven-day hiatus. With all the talk about the Panthers and Hurricanes in the East, the Bolts are still in contention for the top spot and shouldn’t be forgotten.
Can Andrei Vasilevskiy continue to stack wins at home? Can the Oilers start another winning streak after seeing their five-game run snapped versus the Wild? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Lightning.
Oilers vs Lightning odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Lightning opened up as -220 favorites on the moneyline and moved as low as -200 before getting bet back down to -220. The total sits at 6.5. These two teams have not met since 2020.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Oilers vs Lightning predictions
Predictions made on 2/23/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2021-22 NHL season, here are two of the best bonuses available:
USA: New user big boost: Bet $1 on any NHL moneyline at DraftKings and get $150 in free bets if your team wins! Sign Up Now
Canada: Bet on any team to win a game involving a Canadian team at Betway — if they jump out to a 2-0 lead, you get paid out as a winner, regardless of the final result! Claim Now
Oilers vs Lightning game info
• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Wednesday, February 23, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Oilers vs Lightning betting preview
Key injuries
Oilers: Jesse Puljujarvi F (Out), Duncan Keith D (Out).
Lightning: Zach Bogosian D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Oilers vs Lightning head-to-head record since 2015-16
Oilers: 2-7 SU, 23 goals for.
Lightning: 7-2 SU, 34 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in the Oilers’ last six games playing on two days rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Lightning.
Oilers vs Lightning picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Lightning will be looking to shake off the rust after a week’s hiatus and play their first game at home since February 1. The rest is likely welcomed from the two-time defending champions who have played more hockey than anyone over the last two seasons.
Since the beginning of the calendar year, Tampa has had the fourth-best point percentage with an 11-4-1 record, a Top-7 offense and a Top-4 GAA. It might not be edgy to pick the Bolts to win the Cup, but this is still one of three elite teams in the league and is still our pick to win it all at +750.
Edmonton will be trading the cold Alberta snow for the rays of the Sunshine State tonight as the rejuvenated Oilers visit Amalie Arena. Edmonton is coming off a 7-3 loss to the Wild at home on Sunday but had five straight wins before the lopsided defeat.
The wins, however, didn’t come against high-end teams (Jets, Ducks, Kings, Sharks, and Islanders) and the miles this team has put on is hard to ignore.
Since their 3-1 win at home versus the Islanders on February 11, the Oilers have done the three-game California road trip, then traveled to Winnipeg followed by a home game the next day and are now in Florida.
They’ve scored 25 goals over those six games (5-1 SU) but are coming off a game where they gave up seven goals to the Wild where both goaltenders combined to finish with -4.00 goals saved above expected.
Trusting the Oilers in this spot is believing that their goalie issues have been solved and we’re not ready to get behind that.
Neither Mikko Koskinen nor Mike Smith has been confirmed for tonight’s game. Smith somehow gave up four goals in seven shots versus the Wild in his last start and has now allowed three or more goals in eight of his last 10 starts. Koskinen has made just one start since Feb. 2 and has been relegated to No. 2 duties.
Edmonton is nothing more than an average team in the league that sits in the Bottom-10 in goals against at even strength and still relies heavily on the offense. You don’t win shootouts versus the Bolts who sit fifth in the league in goals against at 5-on-5.
Edmonton has had a fairly easy schedule which has resulted in some extra wins after that awful losing streak in January. The Oilers have not been a plus-money dog over their last 13 games and are one of the more overvalued teams in the league with a -$629 mark on the season with the moneyline.
Tampa Bay has lost just four games in regulation at home this season and its 2.38 GAA on home ice is the fifth-best mark in hockey. We aren’t trusting Edmonton to win a close game versus a heavy favorite and are drinking a little juice with the Lightning on the 3-way ML at -135.
Prediction: Lightning 3-way ML (-135)
Over/Under analysis
Edmonton has sneakily been one of the better road Under teams in hockey with an 11-16-1 O/U mark on the season. Tampa has also been profitable to the Under at home this season and the play of Andrei Vasilevskiy is a big reason.
Vaz has a 1.89 GAA on home ice which is one of the best home marks in the league. He is coming into tonight’s matchup with a great amount of rest which is a huge bonus as no goalie has played more than the Russian over the last two-plus seasons.
He is 7-2 to the Under in his last nine home starts and both of those Overs were on totals of 5.5. Tonight’s total of 6.5 is just the second total above 6 that Tampa has seen at home this season across 24 games.
Even with the addition of Evander Kane, this Oilers’ offense is averaging 3.64 goals per game which is good for the ninth-best mark in hockey but prior to signing the problematic winger, they were scoring at the 11th-highest rate in hockey.
Good teams have shut this offense down including Vegas, Florida, Toronto, Carolina, St. Louis and New York. Edmonton has also struggled against the East with a 7-13 SU record.
The recent Minnesota blowout might have some bettors reaching for the Over here as the Tampa offense could have a day, but to Smith’s credit, he played decently in the three games leading up to the 7-3 defeat allowing just six total goals. His teammates might also put in a better effort after hanging their goalie out to dry in the abbreviated start versus the Wild.
Tampa has had a better road offense this season as well. At home, the Bolts scored 3.08 goals per game which is outside the Top 15. That's in sharp contrast to their road mark of 3.72. At home, their games are averaging 5.46 total goals compared to 6.89 total goals on the road. Games are much tighter at Amalie Arena and finding a better defense in hockey than the Bolts is tough to do.
This total could be a half-goal too high as Tampa rarely sees totals of 6.5 at home. Give us the Under.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-110)
Best bet
Beating the Bolts at home is no easy task and running up the score is even more difficult. This team just seems to play a different game at home and that favors the Under, especially with a total of 6.5.
Vasilevskiy is one of the best home goalies in the league and Edmonton tends to lay duds when facing high-end opponents. The Oilers will be juggling lines with Jesse Puljujarvi out and should be easier to match up against for the home team.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Oilers vs. Lightning picks, you could win $23.06 on a $10 bet?
Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
