Two of the Eastern Conference's elite do battle tonight when the Florida Panthers visit the Carolina Hurricanes.
The clubs are currently third and fourth in the Eastern standings but lead the conference in points percentage. NHL betting lines have moved to a pick'em for this Wednesday, February 16 matchup — but do our free NHL picks and predictions feel a storm surge coming?
Read on for our full Panthers vs. Hurricanes preview, including where the best value lies for tonight's heavyweight tilt.
Panthers vs Hurricanes odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened at Carolina -129/Florida +115 but has since moved to basically a flat pick'em at most books as of 1 p.m. ET. The total remains at the opening number of 6.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Panthers vs Hurricanes predictions
Predictions made on 2/16/2022 at 4:02 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Panthers vs Hurricanes game info
• Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC
• Date: Wednesday, February 16, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Panthers vs Hurricanes betting preview
Key injuries
Panthers: Patric Hornqvist RW (Out).
Hurricanes: None to report.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Panthers vs Hurricanes head-to-head record (since 2020)
Panthers: 4-6-0, 28 goals for.
Hurricanes: 6-1-3, 34 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Panthers' last four road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Hurricanes.
Panthers vs Hurricanes picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Panthers are the final NHL team to resume action following the All-Star break, getting 15 full days off since their last NHL game on February 1, and get to jump straight into the fire by visiting Carolina, which has played four games while Florida was soaking up the sun.
Both of these teams are undeniably elite but working against Florida tonight are two things:
1) The rust that comes from more than two full weeks without action.
2) A very mediocre road record thus far.
First, it's hard to get right into game speed with that long of a layoff.
The three other teams that had close to a similar layoff — the Sharks (13 days off), Rangers, and Kings (14 days off each) — has less-than-stellar performances in their first games back, with San Jose getting shut out 3-0 at home against Edmonton, Los Angeles also getting pumped by Edmonton (5-1), and New York winning 2-1 in a shootout at home against a Bruins team without two of its three best players.
All three of those games were against solid teams... but nothing compared to the level which Carolina plays. Plus those were all home games, whereas the Panthers will be on the road tonight — where they have a 9-7-5 record this season.
But is that record misleading? Despite winning just nine of 21 road games so far, Florida is second in the NHL in 5-on-5 Corsi For Percentage on the road (per Natural Stat Trick), third in expected goals for per 60 minutes, and sixth in expected goals against per 60.
What has hamstrung the Panthers, however, is shoddy special teams — they rank 18th with a 19.4% power play on the road this year (22.5% at home) and 27th with a 74% penalty kill (83.6% at home) — and mediocre goaltending, with a negative goals saved above average per 60 minutes and a .900 SV%.
Counter that against Carolina owning the league's second-best penalty kill (90.7%) and fourth-best power play (28.4%) at home, an All-Star goaltender in Frederik Andersen who has been lights-out at PNC Arena (2.11 GAA, .928 SV%), and 5-on-5 metrics that ranks eighth in CF%, second in xGF/60, and third in high-danger chances per 60.
The Hurricanes have lost three of their last four games, which may have helped in pushing bettors to back the Panthers, but the Canes came out of the ASB with a four-game road trip.
Now that they're back in the comforts of home (where they have won five straight and 10 of their last 11) and fully back in the swing of things against a Panthers side that will need to shake off some rust, we just can't ignore getting Carolina at home at pick'em odds.
Prediction: Hurricanes ML (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Panthers are absolute offensive juggernauts, as they average a league-best 4.09 goals per game, 3.29 per game on the road (ninth in the NHL), and have scored at least three goals in six of their last nine road games.
However, they've also been conceding a ton of goals lately on the road, allowing 4+ goals in three of their last four away games (4.0 goals against per road game since 2022 started).
That's also resulted in the Over cashing in four straight Florida away games and five of six overall — and likely won't stop tonight.
Carolina has hit the Over in three of its last four games, seven of its last 11 overall, and ranks fifth in xGF/60 across all strengths at home... and dead last in xGA/60.
The Hurricanes have only given up 2.23 goals against per 60 minutes at home this year, as Andersen has bailed their defense out on a number of occasions. He can still do that tonight, but Florida's offense is too good to be completely shut down.
The previous two meetings this season went Over the total — and we're backing it again tonight.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-110)
Best bet
The rust factor should come into play tonight, with the Panthers going nearly half a month without playing at NHL game speed.
Looking at the other near-two-week layoff teams (Sharks, King, Rangers) again, they were outshot 30-20 and outscored 3-1 in the first period combined (LA actually had the better first period but faced the Oilers on a back-to-back).
As good as Florida is, they are going to need some time to get back into their rhythm after such a long hiatus, which is less than ideal against a Canes team that has had plenty of chances to get back on track — and is fantastic on their home ice.
We like Carolina to take advantage of what should be a sluggish start for the Sunshine Kitties and jump out to an early lead in the first 20 minutes.
Pick: Hurricanes first period -0.5 (+175)
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