The fourth and final 2022-23 regular-season meeting in the Battle of Florida is set for Tuesday as the Florida Panthers head to Tampa to take on the Lightning and their No.1 home offense.
The Bolts are -165 favorites, and they've taken two of the three clashes between these teams this season and seven of the last eight. They also suffered a rough 7-1 road loss to Florida earlier in February that will serve as motivation.
Brayden Point's goal market continues to shorten up. But the center will get an easier matchup without Alex Barkov, so his shot market looks like a great place to find value.
Here are my best free NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Lightning.
Panthers vs Lightning best odds
Panthers vs Lightning picks and predictions
Anton Lundell’s props are showing plenty of value too along with Anthony Duclair, as both forwards are in new top-six roles and running on the second power-play unit. But we could get an elite Tampa Bay Lightning effort in this game.
The Bolts will have redemption on their minds and will look to skate harder with a better lineup following the addition of Tanner Jeannot. Brayden Point is also on fire and will get an easier matchup without dealing with one of the best defensive centers in Barkov.
Point is riding a four-game goal streak, he’s totaled nine points during that stretch. He's logged 36 goals on the season, with 23 games remaining to hit the 50-goal mark.
Only Connor McDavid has scored more goals than Point since Christmas, and the Tampa Bay veteran should also get plenty of power-play chances on Tuesday. Florida takes the most penalties per game, and the team's penalty kill ranks 30th since January 1. Point has recorded four power-play goals over his last 10 games.
The top-line center has notched three goals and an assist over the three meetings vs. Florida in 2022-23, and he's tallied at least four shots in each of those contests. The forward has totaled 18 goals over 28 career games against the Florida Panthers, and seven have come with the man advantage.
Nobody is jumping on his point market at -230, and his anytime goal odds are as short as -105. However, with the scoring touch he owns, playing with Nikita Kucherov, and the Panthers still allowing a ton of shots (33.3 per game since January 1, which ranks 25th), Point to record at least three shots at -125 is a bargain.
It’s nearly impossible to find a player with an even-money anytime goal price and the option to take the Over on 2.5 shots on goal at these odds.
My best bet: Brayden Point Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125 at DraftKings)
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Panthers vs Lightning moneyline analysis
The Panthers are three points out of a playoff spot in the East and will be in tough on Tuesday to get even a point.
Florida (6-4 straight up over the team's last 10) won't have No.1 center Alex Barkov and top-six forward Sam Bennett for this rivalry game. Goalie Spencer Knight is also out again. The Panthers opened as +130 road dogs, and that line has been getting longer while moving to +145. The Panthers closed at +130 on the moneyline prior to the previous game at the Amalie Arena, and the club lost a contest 4-1 that was tied 1-1 going into the third period.
The 15-point discrepancy is certainly warranted with the losses of Barkov and Bennett. Very few teams have been overvalued as much as the Panthers in 2022-23, as they're down over 10 units on straight ML bets.
The Bolts are also a beast of a team at the Amalie Arena, as they're the only club scoring more than 4.00 goals per game at home. They're also 22-4-3 at home, the league's second-best point percentage. The Lightning boast a plus-1.58 goal differential per game at home, too.
New bottom-six forward Jeannot will suit up for Tampa on Tuesday. He sits fourth in the league in hits with 213 through 56 games and will make his presence felt.
The home side also holds the advantage in net with Andrei Vasilevskiy who's been among the best goaltenders at home over the last four seasons. Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky owns a 2.97 goals-against average since January 1, along with a 10-14 straight-up record, an .888 save percentage, and 3.39 GAA against the Lightning across 27 career games.
Looking at special teams, both power plays have been scoring at a top-10 rate since the start of the calendar year. But the biggest difference is the Panthers’ 30th-ranked penalty kill since January 1. Florida comes into Tuesday after killing just seven of its last 14 penalties across its last five games, and both Barkov and Bennett held significant penalty-kill roles.
There were two misconduct penalties and an unsportsmanlike conduct infraction during the last meeting between these squads. The Panthers take a lot of penalties, and that favors the Bolts against a struggling Florida penalty kill that's missing bodies.
Panthers vs Lightning Over/Under analysis
Most books opened this total at 7, which you don't always see with the overnight opening totals.
The total closed at 6.5 with the Over paying -125 prior to the last meeting in Florida. The move to 7 here seems a little dramatic when the game involves two teams amid playoff races.
The absences of Barkov and Bennett also hurt the visitors' offensive output, as they sit fourth and fifth on the team in goals and third and sixth in points.
Goals haven’t come in bunches at the Amalie Arena either during these matchups. The Under is 6-0 during the last six meetings in Tampa dating back to 2020.
Vasilevskiy is coming off a 45-save shutout of the Red Wings last week, his second of the month. He’s 10-0-1 at home with a 2.25 GAA and a .928 SV% since Christmas.
The potential for power-play goals is likely why this total hit 7, and that's also the reason why I’m probably off the Under. Both teams draw and take penalties at a top-three rate, so there could be plenty of infractions on Tuesday. Tampa boasts the No. 7 power play since January 1, and the Panthers' unit ranks No. 3 since the start of 2023, despite scoring just two power-play goals in their last 10 games.
I’m off this total at 7 but am leaning to the Under.
Panthers vs Lightning betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 during the last six meetings in Tampa. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs Lightning.
Panthers vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 28, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TVAS, BSFL |
