Panthers vs Lightning Picks and Predictions: Game-Stealing Goalies

It’s round two in the sunshine state as the Tampa Bay Lightning play host to the Florida Panthers Saturday. Florida, who is riding a three-game losing skid, took the first meeting this season, 4-1, but the Bolts are getting hot and have collected 10 of possible 12 points over their last six.

Tampa opened as -125 home NHL betting favorites and has won nine of the previous 18 meetings dating back to last season, when the Bolts eliminated the Panthers in six games in the first round of the playoffs. The total sits at 5.5, leaning to the Over.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Lightning for Saturday, November 13.

Panthers vs Lightning odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Panthers vs Lightning picks

• Lightning ML (-120)
• Over 5.5 (-120)

Picks made on 11/12/2021 at 3:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Panthers vs Lightning game info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSUN, BSFL

Panthers vs Lightning betting preview

Injuries

Panthers: Joe Thornton F (Out), Noel Acciari F (Out).
Lightning: Zach Bogosian D (Probable), Erik Cernak D (Out), Nikita Kucherov F (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Panthers vs Lightning head-to-head record (2020)

Panthers: 9-9 SU, 56 goals for.
Lightning: 9-9 SU, 58 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Lightning.

Panthers vs Lightning picks and predictions

Lightning ML (-120)

The Florida Panthers started the season with an 8-0 record but have dropped four of their last seven games since. Two of those losses have come in extra time but one regulation win in their last seven has slowed down hockey’s most dominant team.

Florida closed at -100 in the last meeting on October 19 and won that game 4-1 in a game that was a lot closer than the score indicated, as Tampa had a 56 percent chance to win that game, per MoneyPuck. Now Tampa is a bigger favorite on Saturday coming in with more rest and in better form.

The Lightning have shaken off their Stanley Cup hangover after starting the season 2-4 by winning four of their last six, and picking up a point in those two losses. The losses also came against two of the better teams in the East in the Hurricanes and Leafs. 

Andrei Vasilevskiy has found his best form as he hasn’t allowed more than two goals in any of his last five starts and has a .947 save percentage over that stretch. The Lightning may not score at the rate that the Panthers do, but they don’t mind playing close games. Coming off an intense 2-1 OT loss to the 10-1 Hurricanes, Tampa is in great form.

Lots of people will be rushing out to grab the 10-4 Panthers at plus money. They lead the league in goals at 5-on-5 but Tampa has been playing some tight even-strength hockey, with just seven 5-on-5 goals against in its last six games. The Florida power-play has gone 0 for its last 10 and we’re expecting another close battle between two familiar foes. Florida has four losses on the year; three of them have come by one goal. 

Sergei Bobrovsky has been stellar in net for the Cats this season but very few goalies in the league steal games like Vasilevskiy does. His splits against the Panthers aren’t great but Tampa has been one of the most dominant teams at home over the last couple of seasons and it’s not often they drop back-to-back games at home. Since the 2018-19 season, Tampa is 77-32 at home, which is the best mark in hockey. 

This Tampa Bay ML price will likely be best closer to puck drop. We like the play of Vaz and the Bolts’ top three lines and the form of the home side. We’re biting on the -120 ML.

Over 5.5 (-120)

In the 18 meetings between these two clubs, the Over is 11-7, which is impressive considering there's a six-game playoff series in those numbers. In Florida's 4-1 win earlier in the season, the final expected goal count was 6.2 total goals.

Neither team has a dominant penalty kill this season. Florida has allowed five power-play goals over its last six games while the Bolts have given up a PP goal in four of their last six. Both teams take penalties at a Top 10 rate and the last meeting saw nine total minor penalties. These two teams are very familiar with each other and likely don’t enjoy each other’s company. We could see plenty of PP opportunities from both sides.

Vazilevskiy is playing great right now but he has struggled vs. the Panthers in the past. He finished with a .896 save percentage in six starts versus Florida last season which was his worst mark out of the seven teams in his division. The Over is 6-4 in his last 10 games versus the Panthers. 

The Panthers also got a scoring boost with Sam Bennett coming back from injury. The former Flame has transitioned to his new team nicely as he sits third on the team in goals while Anthony Duclair has eight points in his last seven and Alex Barkov is riding an eight-game point streak.

Potential starter Sergei Bobrovsky posted a .879 save percentage in five starts versus the Lightning last season, prior to the playoffs, and didn’t start in this season’s earlier meeting. Bob actually lost the starting role during the playoffs after the Lightning scored 10 goals on him in two starts.

Both teams have elite power-plays and roll three lines that can score goals. We like the Bolts to bury a few more than the first meeting this season and like the Over 5.5 here.

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