We’ve got 13 games on the NHL slate tonight, including a marquee matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins.
Which means one thing and one thing only... Death, taxes, and Evgeni Malkin torching the Buds. Hello Geno NHL player props.
The NHL odds seem to favor Toronto in this game, but I still think Malkin will likely find the score sheet no matter the result. Find out why in my free NHL picks for this December 16 matchup.
Penguins vs Maple Leafs odds
Penguins vs Maple Leafs predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter tonight’s game hoping to bounce back after a rollercoaster 6-5 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets Thursday night.
The Pittsburgh Penguins, on the other hand, enter on a two-game winning streak where the team has scored four goals in back-to-back games for the first time since November 14. Sidney Crosby has been the catalyst behind this recent burst of offense with four points in those two games and is currently +155 to go Over 1.5 points.
However, for my best bet tonight, I think there’s better value in another Penguin veteran.
Enter Evgeni Malkin, whose point total is set at 0.5.
Throughout his career, the Pens star has had plenty of success against the Leafs — scoring 68 points in 44 games. That’s an average of 1.54 points per game, the best production against any team on a per-game basis. That offense has kept into the late stages of his career too, as he’s still averaging a point per game over his last 10 meetings with Toronto.
The 37-year-old is still generating offense at an elite rate. He’s got 24 points in 28 games and has registered at least one point in three straight.
As for the Maple Leafs, they’ve been leaky defensively and have allowed the second most goals on home ice (3.86 per game). That should provide plenty of opportunity for Malkin to pick up a point or two if the Buds play like they did in the first two periods against Columbus… and most of their outings at Scotiabank Arena.
Additionally, the Pens power play broke out of its funk the other night and now has scored four times after a month-long dry spell. They’ll look to carry that momentum forward tonight against Toronto, who has now given up a power-play goal in back-to-back games. Malkin is averaging 3:27 on PP1 this season and should factor in if Pittsburgh continues its special teams success.
My best bet: Evgeni Malkin Over 0.5 points (-175 at SIA)
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Penguins vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Under 7.5 goals
Penguins team total Under 3.5
Auston Matthews anytime goal
For leg one of my same-game parlay, I’ll take the Under on the alternate total of 7.5 goals. We’ve seen seven or fewer goals in six straight and nine of the last 10 games between these two, including a month ago when Pittsburgh took down Toronto 3-2. Plus, a trend I like here is the fact the Penguins are hitting the Under at a 64% rate.
Next up, let’s parlay the total Under with the Penguins Under 3.5 goals. The Penguins rank 24th in scoring this year, averaging 2.93 goals per game. They’ve scored 4+ just three times in their last 10 games. Additionally, Martin Jones is the expected starter for Toronto, and his numbers against Pittsburgh have been stellar, winning six straight outings against the Pens while only allowing six goals total over that streak.
For my final leg, let’s roll with an Auston Matthews anytime goal. This man has been on fire, potting nine goals in his last six games, and is looking like a threat to score every night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penguins vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs are favorites tonight at -175, with the Penguins entering as +120 road dogs. Pittsburg won on home ice the last time these two teams met in November, but Toronto had won three of the four games prior and figures to be looking for a bounce back after a tough loss to Columbus Thursday night.
The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals, shaded to the Over (-135), with the Under paying +110. After giving up six goals to the Blue Jackets, the Leafs market may be overreacting by betting up the Over. However, these two teams played less than a month ago, and the Under hit with a 3-2 final in overtime. It was the fifth time the Under cashed in their last six meetings.
Unders are hitting with regularity in Pens games — going 8-2 in their last 10 — averaging just 2.4 goals per game in that span. Plus, I think both teams will be on high alert defensively with so much star power on the ice, as it often makes for a quieter game. At plus money, the value is certainly on the Under.
Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Penguins have hit the Under in 28 of their last 41 road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.
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Penguins vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, Sportsnet |
Penguins vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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