We have a tremendous tilt on Monday night as the Pacific Division’s Edmonton Oilers host the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins.
Two of the last three matchups between these squads have seen seven or more total goals scored. Will we see another high-scoring affair or will the goaltenders play spoiler this time around?
Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs Oilers on Monday, October 24.
Penguins vs Oilers best odds
Penguins vs Oilers picks and predictions
The Over has been a hot bet for the Pittsburgh Penguins to start the season as it has gone 4-1 through their first five games. A dynamite offense spearheaded by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Jake Guentzel is the primary culprit for these high-scoring games.
It is worth noting that Guentzel sat out in Pittsburgh’s 6-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets and is considered day-to-day with an upper-body injury. However, Danton Heinen slipped effortlessly into his role and scored twice as the game soared Over the total.
To be fair, it's easy for any winger to play alongside Sidney Crosby. Speaking of Crosby, the guy looks like the Hart Trophy winner of old with 10 points through five games.
Everything is clicking for this offense thus far, and we should not expect anything to change. At five-on-five, the Penguins rank first in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes.
This offense should excel against Edmonton, a team that struggles both defensively and in net. Edmonton currently ranks just 24th in the league at five-on-five in expected goals against per 60 minutes.
The blue line was the Oilers’ biggest problem last season as they finished 23rd in xGA/60 at five-on-five, and they did nothing over the offseason to address this dilemma. In fact, the only thing that happened for them is that they arguably made a downgrade between the pipes with the acquisition of Jack Campbell in free agency.
Through four starts this season, Campbell possesses a .889 SV% and 3.81 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 20th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at five-on-five.
This combination of poor goaltending and lacklustre defense has led to a poor 2-3 start for the Oilers, despite having two of the best offensive players on the planet. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been as good as you would expect, a big reason the Over has been a good bet for Edmonton as well.
We have two elite offenses in this game. That should make seven goals not too difficult to come by.
My best bet: Over 6.5 (-130 at DraftKings)
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Penguins vs Oilers moneyline analysis
I would lean toward the Penguins' moneyline in this contest, but the fishy line is concerning. While Edmonton is at home, that should not be enough to make them a favorite against a Pittsburgh team that has been dominant to start the year.
Quite frankly, there is not an avenue that suggests the Oilers will win other than a narrative that “McDavid and Draisaitl will just take over and win it themselves on home ice”. That is not enough for me to justify this price, but those multi-billion-dollar casinos in Vegas do not build themselves.
Assuming the goaltending matchup is Tristan Jarry against Jack Campbell, Pittsburgh will boast the better defense, goaltending, and an offense that can keep up with the stars of Edmonton. Jake Guentzel's questionable status is definitely a point of concern, but the Penguins looked just fine without him in their 6-3 win on Saturday.
Pittsburgh has won seven of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs.
Penguins vs Oilers Over/Under analysis
The only reservation to make regarding the Over in this contest is the play of Pittsburgh’s projected starting goaltender, Tristan Jarry. Through four starts this season, Jarry is 4-0 with a .941 SV% and 2.02 GAA.
At five-on-five, he ranks fifth among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60. Jarry has been utterly fantastic to start the season, but could some slight regression hit against Edmonton?
Through two career starts against the Oilers, he is 1-1 with a .878 SV% and 3.03 GAA. The Over hit in each of those two outings.
While Jarry was good last season, he was not this good, as he posted a .919 SV% and 2.24 GAA while ranking 16th among starting goaltenders at five-on-five in GSAx/60.
Even if slight regression starts to hit Jarry, that should be all that is necessary to push this game Over the total as each offense will take care of the rest.
Penguins vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Over is 4-1 in Pittsburgh's five games this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs Oilers.
Penguins vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Monday, October 24, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NHL Network |
Penguins vs Oilers key injuries
