Penguins vs Stars Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Marchment Shines Bright

The Pittsburgh Penguins have a bad track record when it comes to performing in must-win games. Sitting nine points out of a playoff spot with 14 games to go and facing the Dallas Stars, who just got Tyler Seguin back, one might declare tonight’s matchup as another must-win for the +165 road dog.

Facing a desperate Pittsburgh squad and getting the second line back together with Seguin’s return, should bettors continue to fade the aging Penguins?  

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Penguins vs. Stars for Friday, March 22. 

Penguins vs Stars odds

Penguins vs Stars predictions

Dallas Stars forward Tyler Seguin suited up for the first time following an 11-game absence on Wednesday and blended right back into the lineup vs. the Arizona Coyotes. He had four shots and a goal in 14:44 time on ice during the 5-2 win. His line also saw six O-zone faceoff shift starts which led the team. 

"Personally, there's a little rust in certain areas,” Seguin said about his game following the win. “ I think I lost my first three draws, things like that. Definitely a game to build on."

If Seguin can get his face-off speed back, there could be better scoring opportunities coming tonight. The chemistry on this line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene is special.

"I thought we should have had four or five goals rather than just one," Duchene said regarding the line getting back together. "Chemistry is something you can't quantify. You can work on it always, but when it's there, it's there.”

That chemistry should be there tonight and Marchment to get a point at +114 is the best value of the three who also play on the second power-play unit together.

The Pittsburgh Penguins continue to be an inconsistent team that will struggle to match up vs. arguably the deepest top-nine in the league. The Pens’ 3.55 goals allowed per game since the All-Star break is a bottom-six number and only four other teams are allowing more 5-on-5 goals per game over the last 10.

Desperation does not correlate to better results.

"Whatever the highest level of desperation is, that's where we're at," Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby said. "That's the situation we're in. There's nothing else to do but play with some urgency and some desperation and try to get it a game at a time."

It’s time to back the Dallas offense tonight and Marchment for a point at plus money is the value on the board. 

My best bet: Mason Marchment Over 0.5 points (+114 at DraftKings)

Penguins vs Stars same-game parlay

Mason Marchment Over 0.5 points

Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 points

Over 6.5

+400 at bet365

If you add Duchene, the other forward on this line, it pushes the odds to +600, but I'm not a greedy man. Tristan Jarry has been bad this month and the Pens have been just as terrible when games have meant the most. 

Jake Oettinger still isn't a goalie I trust and Pittsburgh should be able to get two or three goals. Ultimately, Dallas is healthy and deep and Pittsburgh can't match up. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Penguins vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Dallas opened as short as -175 in some places but this moneyline has leveled off to around -200 as of this afternoon. The total opened at 6.5 and has sat around -110 aside today.

Looking at injuries, middle-six Pittsburgh forward Jeff Carter is questionable while the Stars will be without bottom-pairing D-man Jani Hakanpaa for a second straight game but his replacement, Nils Lundkvist, had two assists in the last game and played 14:14.

The goalie matchup is a tough one to give an edge to. Oettinger is 6-6 SU with a GAA above 3.00 over his last 12 games as he can either let in four goals or look like the best goalie in hockey. 

The Pens are going with Jarry, who has been bad in March with a 2-7 straight-up record, a 4.31 GAA, and a .876 save percentage. If both goalies play to their current form, bettors could see some goals tonight.

Dallas is an elite 5-on-5 team and if they get good goaltending could be a serious contender for the Cup. Pittsburgh showed last year that they struggle to win important games after losing to Chicago in the last game of the year as a -450 favorite. Their 3-7 SU record over the last 10 games, which have all been must-wins, isn’t helping to shake those desperation issues. 

Penguins vs Stars betting trend to know

The Dallas Stars have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+9.00 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Stars.

Penguins vs Stars game info

Penguins vs Stars latest injuries

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