With Unders hitting at almost 58% over the last seven days, it’s safe to say scoring is down and things are tightening up with the NHL playoffs around the corner. Hammering player point parlays blindly has lost money of late but there are some spots to hit at some of the prices available.
These are my three favorite NHL picks for Thursday, March 20.
NHL player prop bets today
Zary o0.5 points (+145 at bet365)
Cooley o0.5 power play points (+525 at bet365)
Rodrigues o0.5 points (+150 at bet365)
Best NHL player prop bets for March 20
Connor Zary Over 0.5 points (+145 at bet365)
Connor Zary returned to the Calgary Flames lineup last game vs. the Rangers and was immediately put on the top line and PP2. He finished with an assist in over 17 minutes of ice time, which could grow tonight in his second game.
The real edge for the first-line winger to find the scoresheet is the matchup vs. the New Jersey Devils and, more specifically, goaltender Jacob Markstrom.
Markstrom has been bad since returning to the crease, which has been deflating for the Devils, who had gotten great play from Jake Allen and Nico Daws. In his five games since returning from injury, Markstrom is 1-4 SU with a .829 SV% and 21 goals allowed.
The Flames might not have the best offense but this is a good matchup and price for a skater in a new role that is not priced in yet.
Logan Cooley Over 0.5 power play points (+525 at bet365)
Logan Cooley got a promotion to the first power-play unit today at practice at Barrett Hayton's expense. Cooley is being priced as a PP2 skater. He should be around +350. These are the gems of the fluid NHL line moves. It might not hit, but it’s certainly +EV.
It’s a great matchup vs. the Buffalo Sabres, who own a 3.92 GAA while also sporting the third-worst penalty kill since the restart.
The real value here is that the Sabres have taken the most penalties in hockey since the end of February. That gives Cooley more TOI with a very talented top power-play unit.
If you’re betting PP points, I suggest playing the market consistently and for a longer period. These +EV plays come up all the time but the average power play scores from 20 to 25% of the time.
Evan Rodrigues Over 0.5 points (+150 at bet365)
The Florida Panthers are trying to get Alex Barkov and Sam Reinhart going and moved Evan Rodrigues to the top line to help. Although he is not on the first power play, he is great value today for a point vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Columbus sent goalie Jet Greave down to the minors so it looks like Elvis Merzlikins will start tonight, which will be his first start in a week. Over the last 30 days, he is 2-4 SU with a sub-.890 save percentage and a negative GSAA.
For a player playing on the top line in a great matchup but will only see 25% of PP time, this point prop’s fair price is around +115. This is a play for me to +120 vs. the Blue Jackets, who are notorious for playing high-scoring games at home.
Live NHL odds
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
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