I’m backing a couple of top line forwards in an Atlantic Division clash on Sunday night, as well as an offensive defenseman vs. one of the league’s worst defensive teams.
Let’s take a closer look with my NHL player props for December 15.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 15
Tage Thompson Over 0.5 points (-136 at FanDuel)
Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Shayne Gostisbehere Over 0.5 assists (-110 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-15 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Tage Thompson Over 0.5 points
Things haven’t gone well for the Buffalo Sabres of late, but this kind of price point for a player of Tage Thompson’s caliber seems like a gift.
Thompson has produced at least one point in 72% of his games this season. Despite the Sabres losing every night, Thompson enters in good offensive form as well. He has found the scoresheet in five of his past six games, including against high-end opponents like the Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, and Washington Capitals. The matchup doesn’t scare me in the least.
The Maple Leafs haven’t defended as well of late either. At 5v5 they rank 23rd in expected goals against over the past 10 games. They have also taken penalties at a fairly high rate, meaning Thompson & Co. should have plenty of power play time to operate.
With Anthony Stolarz injured, and Joseph Woll getting the nod in goal Saturday night, the Leafs will be forced to start Dennis Hildeby. He is a promising goaltender but doesn’t appear ready for prime time, having allowed eight goals through two starts this season.
Prop bet #2: Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points
Auston Matthews should collect royalties on Matthew Knies’ next contract because the Toronto Maple Leafs captain is making him a lot of money.
Knies’ production is drastically higher when playing with Matthews as opposed to, say, John Tavares. Dating back to the beginning of last season, Knies has averaged 1.07 goals and 1.98 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 play on the wing of Matthews. That is a stark contrast from the 0.33 goals and 1.32 points per 60 he has put up alongside Tavares.
Luckily for Knies, he is projected to skate on the top line with Matthews and Mitch Marner in this game — and in a good matchup at that.
The Sabres have lost nine consecutive games and will now turn to James Reimer to help get the team back on track. That’s likely not a recipe for success against this Maple Leafs offense as Reimer owns an .879 save percentage and has allowed 18 goals through just five starts this season.
Win or lose, the Maple Leafs should score in this matchup. Knies is positioned well to get in on the fun.
Prop bet #3: Shayne Gostisbehere Over 0.5 assists
Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere started the season on a goal surge, finding the back of the net in four of his first five games. He has since produced 20 points spanning 24 games, 18 of which have come by way of assist. That’s a 90% assist rate in that span.
Gostisbehere has assists in 10 of his past 14 games, including seven of the last nine at home soil. He has consistently helped create goals, and that should continue Sunday night.
The Columbus Blue Jackets have allowed 3.57 goals per game (third-most) while Carolina has scored 3.59 (fourth-most). Columbus is in the latter half of a road back-to-back against a Hurricanes team that hasn’t traveled since last Saturday.
The Hurricanes should be well-rested and flex their muscles offensively in this spot, giving Gostisbehere a great chance to pick up an assist along the way.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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