Predators vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Red-Hot Saros Stifles Buds' Attack

The Toronto Maple Leafs have won eight of their last nine and will play their seventh home game in over two weeks Tuesday when they host the Nashville Predators, who are also playing excellent hockey having won eight of their last 10. 

Toronto (10-6 SU) opened at -190 on the moneyline, and it hasn’t moved by the time of writing with the total sitting at 5.5 and leaning to the Over. The Leafs will likely start Jack Cambell (8-4 SU, 1.81 GAA) while Nashville (9-6 SU) should go with Juuse Saros (7-5 SU, 217 GAA) in net.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Predators vs. Maple Leafs for Tuesday, November 16.

Predators vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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and view the full line movement for this game.

Predators vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Predators ML (+170)
• Under 5.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Predators ML (+170)

Predictions made on 11/16/2021 at 9:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Predators vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, November 16, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, Bally Sports Ohio

Predators vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Predators: Filip Forsberg F (Out), Nick Cousins F (Out), Alexandre Carrier D (Questionable).

Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Predators vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2017)

Predators: 2-4 SU, 13 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 4-2 SU, 13 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Predators are 6-1 SU in their last seven games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Predators vs. Maple Leafs.

Predators vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Maple Leafs have been stacking wins since starting a five-game homestand back on October 30. Since then, the Buds have won eight of their last nine, but not all of those games have been spectacular. Case in point, last Saturday’s game against Buffalo was one of the uglier games the Leafs have won all season, and a game they likely lose more often than not. 

Sheldon Keefe’s team will be looking to put in a better effort back at home, where the Leafs are 7-3 SU, but is this another classic case of the Leafs being overvalued, yet again?

Despite the winning record, if we bet $100 on the Leafs each game this season we’d be down $624. It’s hard to find any value with Toronto on the ML as it gets priced as if they were the Los Angeles Dodgers. This is far from a perfect team that has a ton of question marks on defense, has relied heavily on scoring from four players, and has been bailed out by goaltender Jack Campbell on numerous occasions.

The Leafs were -127 on the ML versus the Bruins on November 6 and this is where we feel the line should be versus the Predators, -160 at the most. Nashville has lost in regulation just once in its last 10 and is riding a hot goalie in Juuse Saros, who hasn’t allowed more than two goals in any of his last seven starts, and comes into Toronto rested after last playing on Saturday. Nashville hasn’t been priced this high since it closed +165 at St. Louis on the backend of a back-to-back — a game they won 4-3 in OT.

The Predators are one point off the lead for the Central Division and have had a rough schedule with three sets of back-to-backs already where they’ve had to play Winnipeg, Minnesota, Calgary, Edmonton, Dallas and St. Louis. Nashville has gone an impressive 4-2 SU in those games. Being undervalued is nothing new for Nashville but bettors who have been backing the club know the rewards. The Predators have been +135 underdogs or higher five times this year and are 4-1 for 4.93 units in those games.

Campbell has been a rock for the Buds, but getting a hot goalie in Saros at +170 is hard to pass up. Saros has a 2.17 GAA with a .927 save percentage and a 1.79 GAA over the last two weeks. Nashville may not be an offensive juggernaut but it's scored more than Leafs this season (2.87 to 2.67 goals per game). The Preds play great at even strength (top-10 in 5-on-5 goal differential) and have the league’s No. 5 power play that also produces at a higher rate than Toronto’s. 

Missing Filip Forsberg is not ideal but Matt Duchene has picked up the slack. The forgotten forward has points in seven of his last 10 games and multi-point efforts in five of those games. 

Campbell has been the Buds’ best player this season but Keefe’s new affinity for changing up the defense pairings isn't doing him any favors. Defenseman Timothy Liljegren will be scratched tonight meaning Travis Dermott will be in. Liljegren looked great with Rasmus Sandin last week and was a big reason for the Leafs turning things around. Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl spend almost more time in their own end than Campbell and are the fifth-worst D-pairing in goals against/60 in hockey. Campbell can’t bail the Leafs defense out every night, and turnovers are a huge issue as the team is second in the league in giveaways/60. 

Despite being priced as the best team in the league, Toronto has its flaws and has struggled of late against hot goaltenders and few netminders are as hot as Saros right now, making the Predators a live dog at +170.

Prediction: Predators ML (+170)

Over/Under analysis

Only one other team has racked up more Unders than the Maple Leafs. On the season, they are 6-10 O/U but in games that Campbell starts, the Leafs are 3-9 O/U. Campbell has been one of the best goalies in the league and sits fourth in goals saved above expected, is third in save percentage (.939), and third in GAA (1.82). He isn’t the best goalie to throw down an Over against. 

Likely opposing Campbell will be Saros, who has allowed just 12 goals in his last seven starts. That is a pretty long stretch of elite goaltending for the Finn and one that has the Predators at 3-6 O/U in their last nine. Saros is 2-9 O/U in his last 11 starts.

The Preds’ offensive strength lies in a power play that has the league’s fifth-best success rate. However, Nashville has just one PP goal over its last four games and will see a Leafs’ PK that has killed 17 of its last 18 penalties. Both teams draw penalties at a bottom-10 rate so seeing a ton of power plays is unlikely especially with both teams coming into tonight with plenty of rest. 

This total likely won’t reach 6 as Nashville has seen a total higher than 5.5 just twice this season. Both clubs sit in the bottom 10 in goals scored per game at even strength, and with the possibility of few penalties, this game could see a lot of 5-on-5 play.

Unders are hitting at 52 percent this season, and with two great goalies and a pair of teams who have been playing winning hockey, we have few reasons to believe this won’t be a low-scoring battle.

Prediction: Under 5.5 (-105)

Best bet

The Leafs were -200 home favorites two games ago against a Calgary team that was playing its back-up goalie on the second half of a back-to-back. Tonight’s ML price seems too high as Nashville has beaten good teams (Blues, Stars, Flames, Islanders, and Wild) and is riding one of the hottest goalies in the league. Getting a hot goalie in a big underdog spot is not an everyday occurrence in the NHL but it's always a great spot to gamble on some big plus money.

Toronto is one of the most overvalued teams in hockey in terms of ML pricing and finding spots to bet against it can be rewarding. Tonight is one of those spots.

Pick: Predators ML (+170)

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