The Dallas Stars exit the All-Star break teetering on playoff relevancy, with some clarity likely to be provided in an upcoming stretch that will see eight straight games against Central Division opponents and 11 of their next 13 contests being divisional battles.
The Stars kick off this critical run tonight by hosting the Nashville Predators, who have won four of their last five games and are a coin flip to win tonight, with NHL betting odds currently having this game at a pick'em.
Check out our free NHL picks and predictions below to get the breakdown for this game — and where the best value lies.
Predators vs Stars odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened at Dallas -115/Nashville +100 but has since moved to a flat -110 pick'em, which is a big move from the closing line of Stars -149/Predators +134 when Nashville last visited Dallas in early November. The total opened at 6.0 but has shifted down to 5.5, shaded to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Predators vs Stars predictions
Predictions made on 2/9/2022 at 1:47 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Predators vs Stars game info
• Location: American Airlines Arena, Dallas, TX
• Date: Wednesday, February 9, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Predators vs Stars betting preview
Key injuries
Predators: Matt Benning D (Day-to-Day).
Stars: None to report.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Predators vs Stars head-to-head record (since 2020)
Predators: 6-3-0, 22 goals for.
Stars: 3-1-5, 26 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-2 in Dallas' last nine divisional games. Find more NHL betting trends for Predators vs. Stars.
Predators vs Stars picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
As mentioned above, the Stars are embarking upon a divisional-heavy stretch that will help determine whether the team will be a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline less than six weeks from now.
Dallas is currently outside of the playoff picture, sitting 10th in the Western Conference and four points back of eighth-place Calgary, but it has won five of its last seven games heading into the break. The Stars are powered by some strong 5-on-5 play during this stretch — seventh in shots on goal per 60 minutes, eighth in high-danger chances per 60, and goals per 60 (per Natural Stat Trick) — powered by the dominant play of their top line (Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski, and Jason Robertson).
The problem is that for how good that trio has been (combined 56 goals and 126 points), the rest of the forwards have struggled in logging a combined 126 points. That lack of depth is less-than-ideal going against a Nashville team that doesn't have quite as dynamic a top line but has more offensive depth — but will it be a factor with the Preds on the road?
Nashville has lost three of its last four road games, with the only win coming against bottom-feeding Seattle. The Predators still have a positive road record this season (14-7-4) but have a sub-50 Corsi For Percentage at 5 on 5 over these recent away contests, sit in the middle of the league in sog/60, and face a Stars team that has the ninth-best points percentage at home this season and the third-lowest expected goals against per 60 overall.
The Predators have won six of the last seven meetings, but we're going to actually buck that trend tonight and side with the home team in what is essentially a pick'em.
Prediction: Stars ML (-110)
Over/Under analysis
While Nashville has struggled somewhat recently on the road, one thing it has not had an issue with — home or away — is clamping down defensively.
Over the last three weeks, the Preds have given up 1.85 goals per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 (the seventh-lowest in the league), a result of a disciplined defense that allows fewer than 10 high-danger chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 time, has the third-best penalty kill (89.5%), and is getting outstanding goaltending from Juuse Saros.
The Finnish netminder has posted a .944 SV% and 1.85 GAA over his last five starts, with 3.33 goals saved above average, giving up two or fewer goals in each outing.
Dallas' starting goalie tonight, Jake Oettinger, has also been on a roll, giving up one (or fewer) goals in three of his last four appearances. He was on his way to another stellar outing at the beginning of the month against Calgary until the Flames scored three times in the final five minutes to come away with a 4-3 win.
Regardless, the Stars rookie has been playing stout between the pipes, and combined with Dallas being significantly better defensively as a whole at home this season, we have a matchup between two defense-first teams and hot goaltenders.
The total already dropped from 6 to 5.5 but we're still going to back a lower-scoring game tonight.
Prediction: Under 5.5 (+100)
Best bet
Nashville has clamped down on giving up high-quality chances... but over the last three weeks it has given up the fifth-most shots on goal per game (36). Over that same span, Dallas clocks in with the eighth-most pucks fired on net per contest, led by veteran Joe Pavelski, who has 25 shots in seven games and has gone Over his 2.5-shot total in five of his last six games.
Pavelski is also averaging 21:28 of TOI in February — the highest of any month this season — as the Stars are leaning on him to continue driving the offense. That shouldn't change tonight, coming out of the All-Star break against a divisional opponent, so we're banking on him to top his shot total against tonight.
Pick: Joe Pavelski Over 2.5 shots on goal (-143)
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