Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Kane Makes Most of Promotion

Evander Kane is back among Edmonton's top lines and paying immediate dividends. It's no surprise, then, that his shots on goal total is among our favorite NHL prop picks tonight against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Jan 16, 2024 • 12:46 ET • 4 min read
Evander Kane Edmonton Oilers NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s a unique Tuesday in the NHL with six teams playing their second road game in consecutive nights. The Colorado Avalanche, Seattle Kraken, Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, New York Islanders, and San Jose Sharks are all lacing them up for back-to-back games on the highway.

Colorado is the only road chalk of the bunch as a small favorite in the NHL odds to beat the Ottawa Senators at the Canadian Tire Centre.

Los Angeles visiting the Dallas Stars, and the Edmonton Oilers hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs stand as the two marquee matchups from the slate with all four teams trading among the favorites in the Stanley Cup odds.

Here are our free NHL picks and top NHL player props for the eight-game slate on Tuesday, January 16.

NHL prop picks and best bets for January 16

Picks made on January 16 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Backing Blackwell

The Chicago Blackhawks are an injury-depleted mess and have been held to a single goal across each of their past three games. They have been moderately competitive, though, and winger Colin Blackwell has stepped into a meaningful role at 5-on-5.

Blackwell has paced the Hawks with 15 shots and 30 attempts across the past seven games, and he has a team-high 53.9 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 during the stretch. Additionally, he’s clicked with linemates Jason Dickinson and Joey Anderson for a 63.4 CF% at 5-on-5 the past three games, which have been against the formidable Dallas Stars, Winnipeg Jets, and Edmonton Oilers.

The script flips Tuesday, with Chicago drawing a league-best matchup, so I’m looking for the momentum to continue for Blackwell and his linemates. The San Jose Sharks are a 5-on-5 disaster with a 42.7 CF% over the past 10 games out of the holiday break and the most shots against per 60 minutes (34.03) this season.

I also value these Colin Blackwell odds because Chicago has the benefit of the last change on home ice, and he’s cleared this 1.5-shot total in five of six games at the United Center. I have Blackwell projected for 2.63 shots.

Colin Blackwell prop: Over 1.5 shots on goal (-130 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Kane capitalizes on promotion

Edmonton Oilers winger Evander Kane climbed to the second line with Leon Draisaitl and Warren Foegele against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday, and the trio had their way with the Habs. Kane finished with four shots on eight attempts, and the line combined for 12 shots and 20 attempts at 5-on-5.

Kane paces the Oil in attempts per 60 minutes this season, and ranking third in shots per 60 is nothing to shake a stick at amongst his colleagues. He’s a proven high-volume shooter and skating with Draisaitl is a huge upgrade over third-line center Derek Ryan.

This isn’t a nightmare matchup, either. The Toronto Maple Leafs have lost three straight and have consistently struggled to limit shots against the best teams in the league — and often inferior clubs put over 30 pucks on net. Just take a quick look at the Toronto game log, with the New York Islanders and Colorado Avalanche respectively registering 30 and 33 shots recently.

Additionally, Kane was consistently trading at a 3.5-shot total earlier this season, and he’s topped this 2.5 benchmark in 22 of 38 games. I have him projected for 3.04 shots tonight, so my numbers are showing value on the available Evander Kane odds in this market.

Evander Kane prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-115 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Going with Guenther

Arizona Coyotes winger Dylan Guenther is flying under the radar entering Tuesday’s matchup against the Calgary Flames. The ninth-overall selection in the 2021 NHL Draft put up 28 points and 94 shots through 29 AHL games before joining the big club and adding another three points and 13 shots across four NHL contests.

Guenther has already established a role on the No.1 power-play unit and projects to skate with Nick Bjugstad and Logan Cooley at even strength. The trio has been a nightmare for opponents across 23:06 of shared ice time with a 67.4 Corsi For percentage and 70% shot share at 5-on-5. Additionally, Guenther has a team-high three shots and six attempts with the man advantage since joining the big club.

The Calgary Flames are a neutral matchup for opposing shooters, too. They’ve surrendered the 19th-most shots (29.58) and 12th-most attempts (61.25) per 60 minutes, and those marks have respectively climbed to 31.71 and 68.71 through seven January games.

While it’s just a small four-game sample, Guenther’s impact has been big. I have him projected for 2.58 shots tonight, so we’re landing an edge with these Dylan Guenther odds.

Dylan Guenther prop: Over 1.5 shots on goal (-135 at Bet99)

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Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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