The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome in the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight to close out their early-season homestand.
Auston Matthews has 21 shots over this three-game stretch at Scotiabank Arena, and my Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions believe he’ll keep firing at the same rate heading into tonight’s matchup against one of the world's best netminders.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this October 21 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction
My Leafs pick
Auston Matthews Over 4.5 shots on goal (-120 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning renew their rivalry tonight at Scotiabank Arena.
Both teams are coming off losses, with the Bolts traveling in from Ottawa fresh off a 5-4 defeat, while the Leafs suffered their first losing effort on home ice this season to the Rangers, 4-1.
The loss to New York was not as drastic as the score indicates; the Leafs still had plenty of chances and shots on net. In fact, that’s been a big reason for their early season success. The team is still shooting at an elite rate under Craig Berube, averaging 32.8 shots on goal per game, which ranks fourth in the NHL.
The man leading the charge in that department is the captain, Auston Matthews, who has a league-leading 28 shots through five games for an average of 5.6 shots per game — an NHL best.
Matthews's shot prop total is set at 4.5 tonight, and I like him to go Over that number in this one against the Bolts. It’s a number he’s already eclipsed three times (60%) this year and was one shot away from hitting it a fourth time.
Plus, Matthews is starting to heat up, coming off his most dominant performance of the season over the weekend where he scored the lone goal of the game for the Buds in a nine-shot effort on 15 attempts.
The Lightning have been a good defensive team this season and have limited teams to just 25.5 shots per game, but the Leafs have been among the leaders in shots per game due to a ‘don't be cute, just shoot’ type of approach under the new coach, with AM34 being the catalyst.
Also, Matthews has a history of dominance and heavy shot share against the Lightning. Last season, Matthews averaged seven shots on net through four games, including a 12-shot outburst in the last meeting on April 17.
I fully expect the league's shot leader to continue to pepper goaltenders, as volume is the name of the game for him and often the best way to beat Andrei Vasilevsky.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Nikita Kucherov anytime goal
Over 1.5 goals 1P
I’ll turn my Matthews shot prop into an anytime goal for the Leafs captain for Leg 1 of my SGP.
He’s got a career shooting percentage in the 16% range, so if we’re betting on him to get 5+ shots, there’s a good chance one of them drops for a goal. Plus, he’s got seven goals in his last seven games against the Bolts.
Next up, I like an anytime goal from your early NHL goal leader, Nikita Kucherov. He’s got a goal in every game so far as he’s off to the best start of his career, picking up seven goals in the first four games of the year. He also torched Toronto last year with five goals and 12 total points in four games against the Buds.
We’ll finish the parlay tonight by taking Over 1.5 goals in the opening period. The Leafs are averaging 1.2 goals in the opening frame, while the Bolts average .80. They netted a total of 14 first-period goals in the four meetings last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning live odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 | Tampa Bay +1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto -136 | Tampa Bay +121
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Maple Leafs vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Maple Leafs are favored tonight at -140 odds on home ice, giving them an implied probability of 58.33% chance to win tonight.
- Meanwhile, the Lightning are getting +120 odds as the road dogs despite winning the last two games against the Buds.
- Overall, though, the Leafs are 6-4 in the last 10 matchups.
- The Over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning trend
Home favorites are a staggering 33-15-4-2 on the year to start the season. That’s a 61% win rate. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Lightning
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 10-21-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Prime, NHLN |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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