The Champions League returns on Tuesday and we have a fascinating matchup in Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund.
Los Blancos got beaten in their last Champions League outing and need to get back to winning ways against Dortmund.
Join me as I give you my best Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund predictions and free betting picks for October 22.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions
My best bet:
Under 2.5 (+190 at TonyBet)
My analysis
On Tuesday we have a replay of last season’s Champions League final at the Santiago Bernabeu between Real Madrid and Dortmund. When these two teams met in June it finished 2-0 to the Spanish team with goals from Dani Carvajal and Vinicius Jr. sealing the trophy for Real Madrid.
It's not fair to directly compare the two teams as they are today. There’s been a lot of turnover for both Real Madrid and Dortmund. Real Madrid have lost the fantastic Toni Kroos, who was fantastic in that game at Wembley, from the heart of their midfield. However, they have added Kylian Mbappe, a genuinely world-class attacking talent. Meanwhile, Dortmund have had a managerial chance and are without both of their forwards from that game, with Karim Adeyemi injured and Niclas Fullkrug having moved to West Ham.
This year’s version of Real Madrid doesn’t look quite as good as they did last season when they won La Liga with just one defeat. They’re behind Barcelona in the table and despite being unbeaten, there’s something that gives the impression that something isn’t right at the club. Their squad is packed with talent but the loss of Kroos has damaged them and their ability to dictate the tempo of games. Likewise, there are reports that the club hasn’t been overjoyed with Mbappe’s performances or fitness since he arrived at the club, despite scoring eight goals in all competitions. The biggest issue regarding Mbappe is how he fits alongside Vinicius in the lineup, with both players doing their best work on the left flank. There’s still a lack of balance with this team that’s stopping them from playing at their best levels right now.
We’ve seen Under 2.5 goals in 60% of Real Madrid’s La Liga games this season and one of their two games in the Champions League. That’s one of the reasons that we’re backing Under 2.5 goals at big odds.
Dortmund have also underwhelmed this season, heading into this game seventh in the Bundesliga table. They’ve scored plenty but given up plenty too, and have scored 10 goals in two Champions League games so far. That said Real Madrid away is a significant upgrade in difficulty to games against Club Brugge and Celtic. Dortmund needs to be smart here and treat this game with caution. If they play too open then Real’s attackers will be able to tear them apart. They need to sit and frustrate Real, which is why such big odds on Under 2.5 goals are well worth taking.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 2.5
Draw — 1H
Borussia Dortmund double chance — Win/Draw
In addition to our best bet for the game, we’re going to back a draw at halftime. Dortmund will go into this game looking to not let Real get ahead early. The last time these two teams met in the Champions League final earlier this year, it was also level at halftime. Domestically we’ve only seen Real winning at halftime in four or their ten La Liga games this season, while Dortmund have only been leading twice in seven Bundesliga games.
We’re also backing a double chance result, either a draw or a Dortmund win. Dortmund aren’t in great form domestically but they’re unbeaten in Europe and have scored 10 goals in two games. We saw in June that these teams are closer than many thought, with Dortmund unlucky to lose that Champions League final. On their day this Dortmund team can match, or even surpass Real. A win seems unlikely but if anybody can take advantage of the lack of balance in this team then it’s Nuri Sahin’s team.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund odds
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund live odds
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund opening odds
- Moneyline: Real Madrid -209 | Borussia Dortmund +500
- Draw: +400
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-228( | Under 2.5 (+190)
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund side and Over/Under analysis
- Dortmund are one of seven Champions League teams to win both of their games, Real Madrid has one.
- Dortmund have won just four of seven Bundesliga games this season.
- Over 2.5 goals had landed in both of Dortmund’s UCL games this season and in one for Real Madrid.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund game info
| Location: |
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| Date: | Tuesday, 10-22-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo Sports |
| Weather: | Partly cloudy but dry conditions. |
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund key injuries
Real Madrid: Dani Carvajal RB (Out), David Alaba DEF (Out), Brahim Diaz MID (Out).
Borussia Dortmund: Karim Adeyami STR (Out), Julien Duranville FWR (Out), Giovanni Reyna MID (Out), Yan Couto RB (Out), Pascal Gross MID (Questionable), Niklas Sule CB (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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