Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Couturier Takes Charge Against Lowly Sharks

Despite a lengthy stretch that has seen Flyers center Sean Couturier struggle to find the scoresheet, we expect the Philly captain to bounce back against a Sharks team that has been a defensive sieve. Read more in Neil Parker's daily NHL props.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Mar 12, 2024 • 13:10 ET • 4 min read
Sean Couturier Philadelphia Flyers NHL
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The dust is settling following last week’s trade deadline, and our NHL player props are the perfect complement to Tuesday’s busy 10-game slate.

A pair of tape-measuring matchups jump off the page with contenders in the Stanley Cup odds going toe-to-toe in the early wave. The New York Rangers visit the Carolina Hurricanes in a Metropolitan Division tilt, while the Dallas Stars host the Florida Panthers in another marquee matchup.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Flyers and Minnesota Wild are the two largest favorites in the NHL odds, and the Rangers are the only team playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.

Here are our free NHL picks for Tuesday, March 12.

NHL prop picks and best bets for March 12

Picks made on March 12 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Run from Raymond

The Detroit Red Wings are in the midst of a five-game losing streak with just eight goals, and No. 1 center Dylan Larkin has missed the past three and won’t play against the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday, either.

No Larkin is especially bad news for winger Lucas Raymond, too. The frequent linemates have been on the ice for 4.24 goals per 60 minutes this season, and Raymond has only been on for 3.31 when he isn’t skating with Larkin. The third-year winger drops from 3.35 to 2.49 marks at five-on-five, and Raymon has also missed the scoresheet entirely in 10 of the past 15 games.

Making matters worse is the fact that Buffalo Sabres netminder Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been the best in the league out of the holiday break, boasting a league-leading .931 SV%, 1.90 GAA, and 0.71 goals saved above average per 60.

Lucas Raymond prop: Under 0.5 points (-140 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Cushy setup for Couts

It’s been a miserable 20-game stretch for Philadelphia Flyers captain Sean Couturier. He’s recorded just five points and 0.91 per 60 minutes, and the go-to center was even relegated to the fourth line for a spell during the scoring slump. It’s a huge drop from the 2.2 points per 60 he posted across the first 41 games of the season.

Couturier projects to return to the top of the lineup Tuesday against the visiting San Jose Sharks, centering wingers Travis Konecny and Tyson Foerster. Both the matchup and assignment are cushy for Couturier, as San Jose has surrendered the most five-on-five goals (3.21) and expected goals (3.08) per 60. Meanwhile, Couturier and Konecny have combined for a high-end 60.7 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.

Philadelphia was steamrolled 7-0 last time out by the Tampa Bay Lightning, and head coach John Tortorella was suspended two games after being ejected from the game and refusing to leave the bench. I am anticipating Philly having a big showing on home ice against the inferior Sharks.

Sean Couturier prop: Over 0.5 points (-105 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Rolling with Ross

Colorado Avalanche center Ross Colton’s shots prop total has been bouncing back and forth between 1.5 and 2.5, and we’re landing a favorable spot for the former on Tuesday. Colton has recorded two or more shots in 11 of his past 15 games, and he’s third in shots (8.68) and attempts (15.46) per 60 minutes among Colorado forwards during that stretch.

The acquisition of center Casey Mittelstadt also better positions Colton in a third-line role for the Avs. He should see better on-ice matchups and was already playing a solid possession game with a 53.5 Corsi For percentage and 2.5 relative CF% at five-on-five for the season.

The Calgary Flames lineup has lost several go-to players over the past months, particularly on the blue line. Calgary recently allowed 40 shots to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday, and Colorado averages just 0.4 fewer shots per game than Carolina.

Ross Colton prop: Over 1.5 shots (-140 at Bet99)

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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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