The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a rare home defeat Thursday but get a great schedule spot vs. the Detroit Red Wings, who played last night at home and lost 3-2 to the Panthers.
The Leafs are massive -340 favorites, the third-shortest they’ve been all season, but with the recent play of both goaltenders, is there value in the secondary goal market?
Find out in my free NHL picks for Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs.
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs best odds
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Over the last 10 games, it hasn’t been William Nylander or Auston Matthews leading the way in goals for the Maple Leafs, it’s been Michael Bunting, with eight tucks in that stretch. He’s scored in seven of his last 11 games, accounting for 21% of the team’s goals. In a game where nearly every Toronto market is taxed, Bunting to keep up the scoring is returning some value for bettors.
Sports Interaction has the best price on a Bunting goal at +230. The winger is still playing next to Matthews and Nylander on the top line and with Sheldon Keefe still rolling with five forwards on the power play, Bunting is getting big 5-on-4 minutes (6:37 last game vs. Seattle). He also has the third-most shots on net over the last 10 games, behind only Matthews and Nylander.
Toronto's issues in net should also keep the Leafs’ top offensive players on the ice, as projected starter Ilya Samsonov has posted four straight games with a sub-.900 save percentage and allowed five goals on 32 shots vs. the Blues in his last start.
Bunting should also get to see backup goalie Magnus Hellberg who has been used sparingly this season and has struggled to stay in the NHL — spending more time in Russia and the AHL since being drafted 11 years ago.
If you can find Bunting to record a point at -135 or better that’s also a play but tonight it’s about goals for me and Bunting at +230 is the best on the board.
My best bet: Michael Bunting anytime goal (+230 at SIA)
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Red Wings vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
Since the Christmas restart, the Leafs are 2-3 SU but with just a single win in regulation. The real issue has been with its goaltending as over the team’s last 10 games, as its .889 save percentage at 5-on-5 ranks 31st in the league. No bettors right now should be laying this type of juice with Ilya Samsonov or Matt Murray — even in a great schedule spot, as that is also priced in.
Detroit is also 2-3 SU since the restart and has been keeping its opponents from racking up the shots. Over the Wings’ last three games vs. the Panthers, Devils, and Senators, tonight’s visitors have allowed just 70 total shots.
The Red Wings might need more of that tonight with backup Hellberg likely drawing the start on the backend of this back-to-back. Hellberg has not seen much action this season with just four starts, but he has a respectable 2.59 GAA with a .906 save percentage. The 31-year-old goalie has just 10 NHL games in his career.
The Leafs were once one of the best defensive teams in hockey and now that the team is getting healthier on the blue line, it seems it's become a much looser team. Since Morgan Rielly has returned, Toronto has a 4.50 GAA and a penalty kill at 50%.
A lot of that is on the goaltending, as Toronto is still keeping the shots down, but considering the Leafs had a league-best 2.00 GAA when Rielly was out, it could be something else. My guess is when a team has a bunch of young defensemen in the lineup, there is a bigger effort to protect the net, now that Rielly has returned, the Leafs may have lost a bit of that mentality.
Either way, the goaltending is nowhere to be trusted tonight and if bettors are looking to bet on the home side tonight, who have to play in Philadelphia tomorrow, the prop market might be the best place to find value as the 3-way moneyline (-200), puck line (-130) and team total Over 3.5 (-200) are not worth the juice.
The value is on Detroit at +275, but after Thursday’s 5-1 letdown to Seattle, Toronto should come out with a better performance. Tomorrow in Philly might be a better spot to fade the Leafs.
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The days of getting Toronto games at a total of 6 are long gone and if the books are giving us totals of 6.5 vs. Seattle and Detroit, bettors can expect to see that number going forward.
In saying that, I have zero interest in betting this Under 6.5 at even money. The Leafs are 5-1 to the Over in their last six games and only one of those matches saw more than 60 combined shots.
Samsonov, the projected starter, has posted four straight games with a sub-.900 save percentage while Murray has posted a .900 SV% or better in just three of his last eight starts. Add in a Toronto penalty kill that is 66.7% over that time and 57% since the break and you can see why I’m not liking the Under tonight.
The last time these two teams met on Hockey Night in Canada, last season, Toronto won an epic 10-7 game where it nearly blew a 7-2 third-period lead. With the parallels eerily matching up with last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was another game where both teams score at least three goals — something Toronto has seen in four of its last six games.
With both teams giving up goals on the penalty kill and Toronto scoring at least one power-play goal in four straight games (5-for-14), special-team goals could easily get this Over across the line. Since the restart, Toronto is seeing over 2.00 special-team goals per game while Detroit has seen 11 through five games.
This Over should touch -125 at most books at closing.
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Maple Leafs’ last four Saturday games. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs Maple Leafs.
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, January 7, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Red Wings vs Maple Leafs key injuries
