The Detroit Red Wings have dropped five consecutive games, including three with No. 1 center Dylan Larkin out of action with a lower-body injury. Detroit heads to KeyBank Center to face the Buffalo Sabres, and the home team is trading as a short home favorite in the NHL odds.
Buffalo continues to be one of the more inconsistent teams in the league, but the Sabres are coming off a solid 3-2 shootout win over the Edmonton Oilers on home ice. Add recent wins over the Vegas Golden Knights, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Carolina Hurricanes, and Buffalo has been showing off against contenders in the Stanley Cups odds.
The recent losing skid from Detroit has dropped the Wings from a playoff position, and defense and goaltending have been the downfall. Allowing a league-high 25 goals and 20.76 expected goals is tough to overcome, but also scoring just eight times with a 6.2 team shooting percentage is the perfect recipe for a five-game losing streak.
Here are our free NHL picks for the Red Wings vs. Sabres matchup on Tuesday, March 12.
Red Wings vs Sabres odds
Red Wings vs Sabres predictions
On top of the Detroit Red Wings losing five straight, they’re also playing the final leg of a four-game road trip tonight, and they’re 2-7 with Dylan Larkin out of the lineup for the season.
Still, Detroit has been off since Saturday’s 5-3 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights, and it’s hard to envision No. 1 goalie Alex Lyon continuing to struggle against the middling offensive attack of the Buffalo Sabres.
Lyon sports an .865 save percentage, 4.32 GAA, and -0.10 goals saved above average per 60 minutes across his past five starts compared to respective .916, 2.68, and 0.31 marks over 27 appearances to start the year. In fact, with Buffalo ranking 20th in expected goals per 60 (2.52) at 5-on-5 and sporting a 26th-ranked 16.9 power-play percentage, this is the perfect bounce-back spot for Lyon.
In the other crease, Sabres No. 1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen continues to be a rock star and has topped the charts with a league-leading .931 SV%, 1.90 GAA, and 0.71 GSAA/60 out of the holiday break.
So, with Detroit struggling to score, and Lyon positioned for statistical correction, I’m eyeing the Under 6.5 in this matchup. Plus, the Under has hit in eight of Buffalo’s past 10 games.
My best bet: Under 6.5 goals (-115 at PROLINE+)
Red Wings vs Sabres same-game parlay
Under 6.5
Sabres moneyline
It’s pretty clear that captain Dylan Larkin is the straw that stirs the Red Wings' drink and, as noted, this isn’t an ideal schedule spot for the visitors. Add the high-end play of Buffalo starter Luukkonen to the mix, and the struggling Detroit offense stands to continue stuttering.
There are notable gaps in the 5-on-5 metrics. Buffalo has been better than Detroit in Corsi For percentage, goals for percentage, and xGF% this season. Additionally, even with the recent scoring slump, Detroit still sports a second-ranked, and unsustainably high, 10.4 team SH% at 5-on-5.
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Red Wings vs Sabres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There has been minimal movement to this moneyline. Buffalo opened as a -115 favorite through DraftKings on Monday afternoon, and the Sabres are trading at -122 on Tuesday morning. As long as Luukkonen is starting, I don’t expect there to be notable adjustments leading into puck drop, either.
This total is a consensus 6.5, and there has been slight movement to the Under side at the majority of sportsbooks. I’m not surprised because of Detroit's highlighted offensive shortcomings, and Buffalo trending to the Under.
Red Wings vs Sabres betting trend to know
The Red Wings have lost five straight, and the total has gone Under the number in eight of the past 10 Buffalo games. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Sabres.
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Red Wings vs Sabres game info
| Location: | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 12, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSDET, MSG-B |
Red Wings vs Sabres latest injuries
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