Stars vs Golden Knights Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Get Ready For a Grind

The Western Conference Finals begin tonight with the Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Dallas Stars as slight -125 home favorites and a total of 5.5 leaning to the Under. 

The Knights have been riding backup goalie Adin Hill and are fresh off eliminating the best power play in hockey, which is also a strength of the Stars. There's a ton of familiarity between the two clubs as Dallas bench boss Peter DeBoer was previously the head coach of the Golden Knights. Add in two teams that don’t allow many high-quality scoring chances to their opponents, and bettors should expect a low-scoring tight series. 

Find out where my best bets lie in my NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Golden Knights on Friday, May 19.

Stars vs Golden Knights Game 1 odds

Stars vs Golden Knights Game 1 predictions

This is going to be one of the tighter series in these playoffs.

Vegas needs to play well in front of No.3 goalie Adin Hill and has done a great job in the playoffs minimizing quality scoring chances as they sit third in high-danger chances/60 (HDCA/60) allowed at 5-on-5 and has given up the fewest high-danger goals/60. Coach Bruce Cassidy has found what works with this group and if they can shut down Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and that Edmonton power play, the Stars will not score at the rate they did vs. a weak Philip Grubauer and the Kraken.

Vegas hasn’t given up many quality chances, but Dallas has been even better in the playoffs despite a 3.08 GAA. At 5-on-5, the Stars have the best HDCA/60 of all 16 playoff teams and the lowest expected goals against/60. At 5-on-5, this is a battle of two of the best teams in xGA/60 in the playoffs and the 5.5 total leaning to the Under is indicating a tight game and, likely, series.

There's also a big familiarity factor as these two teams met in the Western Conference Finals in 2020 and there remains a lot of overlap in players. However, the biggest factor is that Dallas coach Peter DeBoer was the bench boss of the Golden Knights in that series and knows this team well. That series went five games but four of the matches were won by one goal and two went to overtime. 

If Hill and Jake Oettinger can carry over their play from the end of their respective Round 2 series, this is going to be a low-scoring, low-event game that will not have a lot of ice — especially in Game 1 where teams are shaking off some rust with the layoff and feeling their opponents out. 

With empty-net goals not as big of a factor in the playoffs, it’s tough to see either team hitting the four-goal mark tonight in Vegas — especially with how few high-danger chances (and goals) both teams have allowed so far vs. decent offenses.  

My best bet: Neither team to score four goals (-105 at bet365)

Stars vs Golden Knights Game 1 same-game parlay

Vegas team total Under 3.5

Dallas team total Under 3.5

Regulation tie

+525 at bet365

The regulation tie is paying +280 but this is certainly a way to beef up those odds as the probability of a 3-3, 4-4 or even 5-5 tie is very improbable with how well these teams are defensively. Six of the last nine meetings have ended in a tie after 60 minutes with five of them tied 2-2 after regulation and the other ending 1-1 after 60 minutes. A lot needs to go right for tie bettors if either team scores more than three goals. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Stars vs Golden Knights Game 1 moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Following last night’s marathon, it wouldn’t surprise me to see another game that needs more than 60 minutes to decide a winner.

Both clubs have been putting up great defensive metrics as the Stars have the best expected goals against in the playoffs at 5-on-5, while Vegas sits fifth and had to deal with the Edmonton offense in Round 2. 

Bettors are also agreeing, as Vegas opened at -134 on the moneyline at Pinnacle and has moved more than 20 points to -114. If this game were on neutral ice, Dallas would likely be favored but this is going to be a tight series. 

These two clubs met in the Western Conference Finals in the bubble in 2020, and although the series ended in five games, four games were decided by a single goal and two went to overtime. 

With how good both teams are at eliminating quality chances at 5-on-5, Dallas’ elite penalty kill, and Vegas and Bruce Cassidy stressing discipline entering the series, the tie is absolutely in play here at +280. 

Vegas is taking the most penalties in the playoffs at 5.62 per game, but a lot of that had to do with the Oilers, who draw a ton of infractions. During the regular season, this was the most disciplined team in hockey taking the fewest penalties at 2.92 per contest. Dallas wasn’t far behind at 3.36 (seventh). 

If bettors played the tie on each game of this series, and it goes six games and the tie cashes twice, they would still be up 1.6 units and +26.7% ROI. Even two ties in a seven-game series would return a profit. 

This total open at 5.5, leaning to the Under, took some Over money which moved it to -115 for the Over, but has since seen plenty of Under money move the market to -115 to the Under. 

Betting the Unders in Dallas’ last series with the Kraken was a losing affair, but the underlying metrics pointed to low-scoring games. However, the goaltending ultimately sewered those Under tickets.

Oettinger found his groove in Game 7, and if the Stars continue to limit quality chances, he won’t have to stand on his head and stop 30 shots to be a factor. In fact, I’d be surprised if either team hit the 30-shot mark, which is where the books have the combined shot total at with Betano posting a 60.5 shot total.

Cassidy had a great media presser earlier in the week where he talked about how the Stars will concede O-zone possession in their defensive zone because they keep the puck on the outside and allow low-danger shot attempts. They don’t play much man-to-man in the D-zone that can be busted by one skater beating his check. It’s going to be very hard for the Knights to get quality scoring chances.

???? Eight minutes of hockey talk and then a quick lesson from Bruce Cassidy on the birds and the bees ???? pic.twitter.com/jQyiadxa0u

— z - Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) May 13, 2023

Vegas can shut it down too, and Hill shouldn’t worry Under bettors too much as this is one of the best-coached teams in hockey and has had to play with a revolving door of goalies this year. Hill finished the regular season with a positive goals saved above expected and this is a defense that helped Laurent Brossoit finish with a 2.17 GAA. Hill ranks third in the playoffs in goals saved above expected/60, and his .934 save percentage is bested only by Freddy Andersen.

If we get Game 7 Oettinger, the Under 5.5 is in great shape, and with this being an opening game of a series and could be slower as teams feel things out and see how game plans go before making adjustments, the first period Under 1.5 at -112 projects well. 

Stars vs Golden Knights betting trend to know

Under is 7-1-3 in Stars' last 11 conference finals games. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Golden Knights.

Stars vs Golden Knights Game 1 game info

Stars vs Golden Knights Game 1 injuries

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