Coming off a brutal loss as a -500 favorite, the Toronto Maple Leafs need a win badly tonight vs. the Dallas Stars, who are not even starting their No. 1 goalie tonight.
With some changes on the blue line that will create issues at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill for the Leafs, there is value in the Stars’ second line, which has outperformed the Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski unit early in the season.
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Maple Leafs.
Stars vs Maple Leafs best odds
Stars vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
The Leafs have allowed just three power-play goals this season but are killing penalties at just 81%. The loss of Jake Muzzin might have its biggest effect on this penalty kill as Muzzin was playing nearly three minutes on the PK per game.
Now the Leafs will have to deploy a different pairing vs. a Dallas power play that has scored in three of its 10 power-play opportunities. This was a PP that finished just outside of the Top 10 in PP success a season ago.
The Stars have been dividing up their PP time, so the second unit of Marchment-Seguin-Johnston has been getting plenty of go. The three forwards have combined for two goals and two assists with the extra man so far this season.
Former Leaf and Ontario-born Mason Marchment might have the most motivation of the group and currently leads the team in even-strength points with four. Marchment also has one power-play goal to his name, and Tyler Seguin’s resurgence is also helping the winger.
Marchment will have opportunities tonight, and at +100 to record a point, I’m on board. His playing style also matches up well vs. a Leafs' team that is not physical. I’m also sprinkling his Over 0.5 power-play points at a healthy +625 to win two units.
My best bet: Mason Marchment Over 0.5 points (+100 at PointsBet)
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Stars vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Leafs are coming off an embarrassing loss to an Arizona team that is actively trying to lose and win the Connor Bedard lottery. Toronto is 2-2 but has played four teams without winning records to date. The Canadiens, Senators, Capitals, and Coyotes could all miss the playoffs this year, and the Leafs had very few positives to take away from each game.
Coach Sheldon Keefe called out his “elite players” after the loss to the Yotes but then walked back on those comments the following day, per Leafs reporter David Alter.
Sheldon Keefe said talking to the players about his comments re: elite players were just one of many things he talked about as part of his weekly check-in with players. pic.twitter.com/O2zGTpLFcT
— David Alter (@dalter) October 19, 2022
It’s a weird situation to see a coach renege on comments after a poor performance, but that’s life with the top guns of the Leafs.
The Leafs might catch a break, though, as it seems Dallas will start backup Scott Wedgewood. The Buds' backup is a big downgrade from Jake Oettinger, who has stopped 84 of the 87 shots this season and hasn’t allowed more than a single goal in any of his three starts.
Even with an easier matchup, the moneyline and total have adjusted, but keep in mind: the Leafs have seen Jake Allen, Anton Forsberg, Charlie Lindgren, and Karel Vejmelka and have just 11 goals on 131 shots.
The Leafs were -170 on the moneyline but could close as short as -200, thanks to the goalie matchup. Wedgewood has not made a start this season, but the Stars rank third in expected goals against/60. Peter DeBoer’s group is playing tight hockey, and playing their backup vs. the Leafs shows their confidence in playing a mistake-free, low-scoring game.
Toronto will also be thin on the blueline as Jake Muzzin is out. The veteran defenseman was the team's best defensive rearguard and helped keep an awful Justin Holl in check. Now with Holl getting second-pairing minutes with Rasmus Sandin and Victor Mete drawing in, a careless blue line is even weaker tonight.
If you have the confidence to bet the visitors today, I’d suggest waiting until closer to puck drop, as the line will move significantly to the Leafs' side with Wedgewood starting.
Knowing that the Leafs are one of the best bounce-back teams in hockey, I'm off the ML tonight but think if Dallas gets to +175 or longer, it’s worth a shot.
Stars vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
This game is screaming Over with Wedgewood likely for the Stars. A game featuring him, Ilya Samsonov, and a blender of a Toronto blue line will have the public all hitting the Over tonight. However, I’m waiting for the best price on the Under, which should come closer to puck drop.
The total has moved 10 points to the Over, with Wedgewood expected in net. Regardless of the goalie matchup — which is always priced in — these are two of the top teams in expected goals against/60 on the season. Dallas has been getting great goaltending from Oettinger, but the Stars have also been a team that isn’t allowing many quality scoring chances. Through four games, Dallas has allowed just six high-danger shots.
The Leafs will not want to expose their weak blueline either. With Muzzin out, this defense will take fewer chances with the puck. This was already an offense that wasn't creating a ton of scoring chances and sits 14th in expected goals for/60 — two spots below the Stars.
Toronto will also be sporting a new-look second line as Nick Robertson will join William Nylander and John Tavares. It’s an upgrade offensively to the line, but success right out of the gates is not a guarantee.
I’m waiting for the public to drive up this Over and then hit the Under 7 if I can get it at -125 or better.
Stars vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Maple Leafs’ last four home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs Maple Leafs.
Stars vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, October 20, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet Ontario, Bally Sports Southwest |
Stars vs Maple Leafs key injuries
