With only four games on the NHL slate tonight, none are more important than the Dallas Stars vs. the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton currently sits in second place in the Pacific Division while Dallas is clinging to the final playoff spot in the West with the Golden Knights four points behind them.
Is finishing eighth in the West an automatic first-round exit with a date versus the Avs a sure thing? Can the home side continue to stack points in its barn and maintain home-ice advantage with the second-best record in the Pacific? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Stars vs. Oilers.
Stars vs Oilers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Edmonton is gaining some steam in the moneyline market as it has moved from an opening price of -150 to -175 as of 12:00 noon. The total opened at 6.0 and has since moved to 6.5. These two teams met a month ago where the Stars closed as -115 home favorites with a total of 6.0 in the 5-3 Dallas win.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Stars vs Oilers predictions
Predictions made on 4/20/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Stars vs Oilers game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Wednesday, April 20, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Southwest
Stars vs Oilers betting preview
Key injuries
Stars: Esa Lindell D (Questionable), Braden Holtby G (Out).
Oilers: Evander Kane F (Probable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Stars vs Oilers head-to-head record since 2017-18
Stars: 7-3 SU, 34 goals for.
Oilers: 3-7 SU, 20 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in the Oilers’ last six vs. the Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Oilers.
Stars vs Oilers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Since March 1, the Oilers are 15-5-3 with the sixth-best point percentage in the league at .717. However, a lot of that has to do with their play at home which has single-handedly saved their season. Since March 9, they're 10-0-1 on home ice with a very surprising 2.27 GAA over that stretch.
Heading into the trade deadline, the Oilers needed to upgrade in the crease but didn’t. Well, it seems they didn’t get burned with the lack of moves as Mike Smith has turned the clock back and is 8-1-1 with a 1.98 GAA and a .940 SV% which includes a pair of shutouts over his last 10 starts.
This stellar play out of left field from the 40-year-old goaltender has the Oilers comfortably in the playoff race and looking to secure home ice with a second-place finish in the Pacific.
Of course, the regulars are getting it done for Jay Woodcroft’s group as Connor McDavid is one point off the league lead with a game in hand and Leon Draisaitl sits just five points back from him. Since the beginning of March, the Edmonton offense is scoring 3.78 goals per game which is the fifth-best mark over that stretch.
The Oilers are getting it done with their big names, in net, and getting Top 10 production from the power play and penalty kill. This is a dangerous team right now and we can understand why the market is moving in their favor.
Dallas comes into this game 10-7 straight up in its last 17 and is conceding more goals than it's scoring over that stretch. Its 2.71 goals per game is a Bottom 10 mark over the last 30 days as the Stars haven't scored more than two goals in four straight games. They’ve won two of those games (1-0 and 2-1) but coming in cold versus the Oilers who are shutting things down is a tough angle to bet against.
The Stars’ offense was heavily reliant on the Jason Robertson-Joe Pavelski-Roope Hintz line but now none of those forwards are currently scoring at a point per game or more over the last nine games. They’re coming off a 6-2 loss to the Cancucks and are starting to give non-playoff teams a little hope down the homestretch with their uninspiring play of late. They also have to travel to Calgary for a game tomorrow.
If the Oilers can get out to an early lead, they can continue to play tight in front of an opposing offense that is struggling to find the back of the net. We’re joining the market movers and siding with the home side and have no issues taking them to win in regulation at even money.
Prediction: Oilers 3-way moneyline (+100 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
We agreed with the market movement on the moneyline but we might have to disagree with it on the total. This game opened at 6.0 and hit 6.5 by mid-morning today. The last meeting, just a month ago, had a closing total of 6.0 and despite that game seeing eight total goals, we’re not expecting another shootout today.
The Oilers come into tonight having hit the Under in six straight games and the way that Smith has been stopping the puck of late with back-to-back shutouts and not allowing more than two goals in five straight, we’re feeling this total should be at 6.0, not 6.5.
The books haven’t adjusted to the Oilers’ overall play of late as they’ve seen a closing total of at least 6.5 in each of their last 10 games. Over that stretch, Edmonton is seeing just 5.50 goals per game which is one of the lowest marks in the league. If Dallas isn’t going to score more than twice, we aren’t stoked on this game finishing with seven or more total goals.
Dallas’ offensive struggles have been slightly corrected by its play in net with Scott Wedgewood playing solidly and sporting a 2.28 GAA over his last four games. We wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the start after Jake Oettinger was pulled in his last start versus the Canucks.
The Stars are 6-3 to the Under over their last nine games and their stumbling offense doesn’t give us much confidence in a tough matchup versus a hot goalie. Both penalty kills are playing well with neither team allowing a power-play goal over their last four games.
At 32-42 O/U, Dallas has been one of the best Under teams in hockey of late and with Edmonton finding a new gear in regards to defensive play, we’re thrilled to get this total at 6.5 after it opened at 6.0.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-120 at bet365)
Best bet
The Oilers are playing their best Under hockey of the season and Mike Smith is riding back-to-back shutouts. They’ll face a Dallas team that has scored two or fewer goals in four straight games yet the total still went from 6.0 to 6.5.
Edmonton is 6-0 to the Under over its last six games and seeing just 5.50 goals per game over its last 10 games. It has a ton to play for and has been unstoppable at home of late with a 10-0-1 mark.
With Dallas coming off a rough 6-2 loss to the Canucks and a game on deck tomorrow in Calgary, the Stars should come out and play a tough game tonight to get things back on track in their playoff race. We don’t see this one getting out of hand.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-120 at bet365)
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