The 4 Nations Face-Off continues on Thursday and so do my USA vs. Finland player prop predictions for Thursday, February 13.
My top betting picks and USA vs. Finland predictions expect a big night from the Americans.
USA vs Finland prop picks and best bets for February 13
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (+175 at DraftKings)- Jack Hughes 1+ assists (+150 at FanDuel)
- Dylan Larkin 2+ shots on goal (-110 at FanDuel)
USA vs Finland prop picks and best bets
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (+175 at DraftKings)
No player has scored more goals than Auston Matthews over the past two years, and he’s eyeing statistical correction in the goals column entering the 4 Nations Face-Off. Matthews heads to Montreal with a six-game goal drought despite registering 27 shots, 46 attempts, and 3.2 individual expected goals.
These short-term scoring peaks and valleys aren’t out of the norm, and No. 34 scored nine times over the prior 10 games with an unsustainably 27.4 shooting percentage, so now the pendulum has just swung too far in the opposite direction. Plus, he’s set to be a go-to shooter on the stacked No. 1 power-play unit.
It’s also important to note that there is a nice edge with this +175 DraftKings price because FanDuel has Matthews trading at just +150. The difference attaches a positive expected value of 10% to the DraftKings number.
Jack Hughes 1+ assists (+150 at FanDuel)
This is an outlier price to target for Jack Hughes to pick up an assist against the Finns. He’s priced at -110 to record one or more helpers at DraftKings, with the gap in the numbers presenting a gigantic positive expected value of 31%.
I think the -110 odds are far more accurate, too.
Hughes is set to skate with Matthews and Jake Guentzel at five-on-five, and the New Jersey Devils leading scorer is also jumping the boards with the No. 2 power-play unit. Matthews and Guentzel respectively rank first and 31st in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes over the past two years, and Hughes is 15th in overall assists per 60.
Dylan Larkin 2+ shots on goal (-110 at FanDuel)
Make no mistake, Dylan Larkin is projected to open the tournament skating down the depth chart at 5-on-5, but it should also lead to soft matchups, and I’m anticipating the Americans rolling all four lines throughout Thursday’s tilt.
Larkin has also recorded two or more shots in 45 of 55 NHL games this season, and his 8.28 shots and 17.1 attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 are higher than both Team USA linemates Brock Nelson and Vincent Trocheck.
Additionally, I’m also anticipating Larkin’s speed to help him be the go-to shooter of the three, especially with softer on-ice matchups against Finland’s inferior bottom-six lines.
Not intended for use in MA.
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