The 4 Nations Face-Off continues Thursday, February 13, with a Team USA and Team Finland tilt at the Bell Centre in Montreal.
This battle is a mismatch on paper, and my top Team USA vs. Team Finland predictions and betting picks expect it to play out that way on the ice.
USA vs Finland prediction
My pick
USA -1.5 (-110 at BET99)
My analysis
The Finland blueline is going to miss Miro Heiskanen a lot, and his absence makes an already tournament-worst defense corps considerably weaker.
Finland practicing with five forwards on its No. 1 power-play unit further reinforces the lack of impact bluelines on the roster, and defenseman Urho Vaakanainen has only played 164 NHL games across his seven-year career, while Nikolas Matinpalo has suited up in just 22.
Forward depth is also a shortcoming for the Finns, while it’s a strength of Team USA. Many would also agree that the Americans have the best blueline and goaltenders in the tournament.
Star netminder Connor Hellebuyck paces the NHL with a .925 SV% and 2.06 GAA, and he’s also running the table in the advanced metrics with a league-best 0.64 goals saved above average per 60 minutes, 2.20 adjusted GAA, and 10.1 goalie point share.
By comparison, likely Finn starter Juuse Saros has an underwhelming .898 SV% and 2.95 GAA, as he's struggled all season long with Nashville.
To put the offensive firepower of the Americans in perspective, Team USA has a third line of J.T. Miller, Matt Boldy, and Brady Tkachuk, and they all boast 30-goal seasons on their resumes. The fourth line of Vincent Trocheck, Brock Nelson, and Dylan Larkin can also say the same.
This is a true mismatch, and I expect it to play out exactly that way.
USA vs Finland same-game parlay (SGP)
Check back later for Neil Parker's expert SGP!
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USA vs Finland odds
| USA | Finland | |
|---|---|---|
| -290 | Moneyline | +230 |
| -1.5 (-110) | Puck line | +1.5 (-110) |
| Over 5.5 (-120) | Total | Under 6 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of BET99
How to watch USA vs Finland
| Location | Centre Bell, Montreal, QC |
| Date | Thursday, 2-12-2025 |
| Puck drop | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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