The highly anticipated 4 Nations Face-Off has finally arrived, and my Canada vs. Sweden player props and top betting picks have you covered for tonight's showdown at the Bell Centre on Wednesday, February 12.
All eyes will be on the opener of this best-on-best tournament with both rosters full of NHL stars so let's jump right into our Canada vs. Sweden predictions.
Canada vs Sweden prop picks and best bets for February 12
William Nylander 3+ shots on goal (-110 at DraftKings)
Mitch Marner 1+ assists (-106 at FanDuel)- Nathan MacKinnon 5+ shots on goal (+205 at DraftKings)
Today’s Canada vs Sweden prop picks and best bets
William Nylander 3+ shots on goal (-110 at DraftKings)
Swede winger William Nylander is projected to start Wednesday’s game on a line with center Mika Zibanejad and opposite Rickard Rakell, and I’m expecting Nylander to be the go-to shooter on the line. Zibanejad has seen his five-on-five shots per 60 minutes decline in three consecutive seasons, and the same can be said for Rakell following his 19-game stint with the Pens during the 2021-22 campaign.
I’m also anticipating Nylander being a primary shooter on the No. 1 power-play unit for Sweden, and he’s recorded three or more shots in 35 of 55 games this season while posting the second-highest shots per 60 at 5-on-5 of his career.
Finally, it’s also worth noting that FanDuel has Nylander priced at -115 to record three or more shots, so there’s a small edge in the DraftKings number.
Mitch Marner 1+ assists (-106 at FanDuel)
Team Canada projects to open the tournament with Conor McDavid centering wingers Mitch Marner and Sam Reinhart at five-on-five, and there’s a strong case it’s the prettiest line at the dance.
McDavid is a five-time Art Ross Trophy winner, and only Auston Matthews has more goals over the past two NHL seasons than Reinhart.
It’s a cushy setup for Marner, and he’s also recorded the most five-on-five assists per 60 minutes dating back to the beginning of the 2022-23 campaign. Additionally, while he’s expected to roll with the No. 2 power-play unit, Marner is still an elite scorer with the man advantage and has a seventh-ranked 5.82 PP assists per 60 during the highlighted three-year stretch.
Again, this is a prop to shop for because DraftKings has Marner to record an assist at -130 odds, so the FanDuel price presents a positive expected value of 10%.
Nathan MacKinnon 5+ shots on goal (+205 at DraftKings)
Reigning Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon paces all Canadians in shots per 60 minutes (11.91) over the past two years, and he’s recorded five or more shots 19 times this season. MacKinnon is expected to skate with Sidney Crosby and Mark Stone at five-on-five and on the No. 1 power-play unit Thursday, so he will see big minutes in an offensive role.
Of course, both Stone and Crosby are excellent puck distributors, and Stone isn’t a high-volume shooter. As a result, I’m anticipating MacKinnon ending up being the go-to shooter of the three.
Finally, this is another example where there’s an edge in the numbers with FanDuel pricing MacKinnon at +188 to record five or more shots in the tournament opener.
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