One of the NHL's hottest teams faces one of the league's coldest clubs when the Minnesota Wild visit the Chicago Blackhawks tonight in the final day of action before the All-Star break.
The Wild have won eight of their last nine games and are NHL betting road favorites tonight in this Central Division matchup against Chicago, which has lost six of its last seven contests.
Here are our best free NHL picks and predictions for Wild vs. Blackhawks on Wednesday, February 2.
Wild vs Blackhawks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened Minnesota -145/Chicago +129 and as of 10 a.m. ET Wednesday, the Wild are in the -165 to -190 range while the Blackhawks are as high as +145 — much higher than the +105 Chicago closed at in its last home game against Minnesota almost two weeks ago. The total is sitting at a flat 6.0, shaded towards the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Wild vs Blackhawks predictions
- Prediction: Wild 3-way ML (-115)
- Prediction: Under 6 (+100)
- Best bet: Kaprizov Over 3.5 shots on goal (-110)
Predictions made on 2/2/2022 at 12:03 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Wild vs Blackhawks game info
• Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, February 2, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Wild vs Blackhawks betting preview
Key injuries
Wild: Marcus Foligno LW (Out), Matt Dumba D (Out).
Blackhawks: Jonathan Toews C (out), Tyler Johnson C (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Wild vs Blackhawks head-to-head record
Wild: 2-0-0, 9 goals for.
Blackhawks: 0-1-1, 4 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Blackhawks are 0-4 in their last four games as home underdogs. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Blackhawks.
Wild vs Blackhawks picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
It's been an incredible 2022 for the Wild, who kicked off the year with a loss to St. Louis in the Winter Classic on New Year's Day... and have not lost in regulation since.
Minnesota had eight wins in January, with a shootout loss to Colorado the only other blemish, and goes into tonight's contest winners of five straight games, including consecutive wins over the Blackhawks about two weeks ago.
The Wild have been getting it done by increasing their scoring, with 4.3 goals per game since January 1 (third-most in the NHL), but more importantly by playing a suffocating team defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest goals per game during that span.
Per Natural Stat Trick, Minnesota has the second-lowest expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 (2.05) in the new year, in part because it has given up the fewest scoring chances and high-danger chances against per 60. The penalty kill has been subpar, sitting 20th with a 76.7% efficiency rate, but the Wild have negated that by being highly disciplined in taking the fourth-fewest penalties.
After missing most of the month with an injury, goaltender Cam Talbot returned a week ago for the Wild and has looked sharp in his first two games back, stopping 39 of 42 shots in wins over Montreal and New York, and will look to stay hot against a Chicago team that is in a full freefall.
The Blackhawks have lost six of seven, with an erratic offense being a big cause for concern. Chicago is averaging just 2.67 gpg this month (19th in the league), but that's buoyed by an eight-goal outburst against Detroit — take out that game, and the offense is mustering just 2.13 gpg, which would be the second-worst mark in the NHL.
Minnesota's ability to clamp down on allowing quality scoring chances will only be exacerbated by a Chicago offense that's generating the fifth-fewest 5 on 5 SCF/60, third-fewest HDCF/60, and has one line generating anything resembling offense — the trio of Patrick Kane-Dylan Strome-Brandon Hagel, who have a combined 36 points in 2022 (15 games)... and the rest of the forwards have combined for 41 points.
The team is now also without the strong two-way play of captain and second-line center Jonathan Toews, who is sidelined with a concussion. In their first game without him, they mustered just 21 shots and a 38.2 Corsi For Percentage against a Vancouver side that analytically has been profiling similar to Minnesota over this stretch.
In the previous two meetings — in which the Wild won 5-1 at Chicago and 4-3 in overtime in Minnesota — the Wild were projected to win those games 57.4% and 60.2% of the time, after being run through 1,000 simulations each by Moneypuck.
The Blackhawks were playing better hockey going into those games too. Now that they're struggling even more? We're going to side with the Wild making three straight wins over their divisional rival — and taking care of business in regulation to give us a bit more value.
Prediction: Wild 3-way moneyline (-115)
Over/Under analysis
Minnesota may be scoring nearly four-and-a-half goals per game since the calendar flipped, but it actually has been a little lucky on the offensive end. Despite scoring 43 goals since January 1, the Wild only had 28.24 expected goals for in those 10 games (second-lowest in the league), with a 14.76 goals above expected the second-highest margin during that span.
Furthermore, in the two games against Chicago, the Wild were expected to score 6.44 total goals, below their actual total of nine tallies.
The Blackhawks offense has been neither lucky nor unlucky — its 40 goals in 15 January games is basically on par with its expected output of 39.23, and taking away that outlier performance against Detroit this truly is a struggling offense.
The previous game in Chicago pushed at a total of 6, which the game in Minnesota needed overtime to get Over the number. We don't see Chicago scoring many goals tonight against what has been an elite Wild defense, and if Minnesota's previous expected average of about three goals per game against the Blackhawks regresses to the mean tonight, we should see this actually fall Under the total.
Prediction: Under 6 (+100)
Best bet
The Wild offense may be a tad lucky, but there's no denying the real talent of superstar winger Kirill Kaprizov. After putting up 51 points in 55 games as a rookie last year, the 24-year-old Kaprizov had 52 points in 39 games this season, including 16 points in nine games since January 1, with a team-leading 35 shots.
He's been a little erratic with his nightly shots on goal totals lately, alternating going Over/Under a 3.5 sog total over his last six games, but he had 10 total sog in his two games against Chicago, who are giving up more than 32 shots per game in 2022 — especially while shorthanded.
The Blackhawks are giving up the sixth-most shots against per 60 while shorthanded during this span, while taking the 10th-most penalties in the league. Considering Kaprizov leads the Wild in power-play time on ice per game and shots/60 with the man advantage, we're looking for him to be blasting away again tonight and go Over his shot prop total.
Pick: Kirill Kaprizov Over 3.5 shots on goal (-110)
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