Team Canada will look to finish on top of Group A’s standings as the 3-0 nation concludes its preliminary round Thursday with its toughest match of the tournament against also-undefeated Team Finland.
Both countries have cruised through Switzerland, Germany and Slovakia but will have to earn the No. 1 seed before the group cross-over and single-elimination quarter-finals begin on Saturday. The winner of this game will likely draw the easiest of the quarter-final matchups versus the Czech Republic—with the loser either drawing Team USA, Team Russia or Team Sweden.
Hockey odds have Team Canada as a heavy 1.5-goal favorite with the World Junior betting total set at 6 shaded to the Under.
Here are our World Junior Hockey Championships free picks and predictions for Team Finland vs. Team Canada on Thursday, December 31 (6:00 p.m. ET).
Team Finland at Team Canada Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Finland: None to report.
Canada: Kirby Dach C (Out).
Betting Trend to Know
Over the last five matchups, Team Canada has scored at least four goals four times while giving up more than two goals just once.
Puck Line Pick
With matching 3-0 records and nine points, both Finland and Canada are done dominating the tournament’s weakest group and will get to renew a recent (and growing) rivalry.
The Canadians eliminated Team Finland last year in the semifinals with a 5-0 win en route to winning the gold medal. But it was just one year earlier where the Fins knocked out the hometown Canadian team with a 2-1 overtime win in the quarterfinals. Team Finland would go on to win the gold that year.
Since 2014, only one other nation has won the gold other than Canada or Finland as both countries have generated strong U20 programs this decade.
Each team has been defensively responsible through three round-robin games with seven combined goals allowed between the two teams. Both countries have also been gaining confidence and chemistry (which is a big part of the tournament) as Canada and Finland are coming into this all-important game fresh off their best wins. However, the deeper Canadian roster will have an extra day of rest with Team Finland yesterday.
Speaking of deep rosters, Canada’s depth could be the biggest difference in this game. Team Finland has enjoyed success with its top line of Roni Hirvonen (Toronto Maple Leafs), Anton Lundell (Florida Panthers) and Kasper Simomtaival (Los Angeles Kings). The three forwards managed seven points in their 6-0 win over Slovakia, but if Canada can shut down this trio of skilled players, Finland could be hard-pressed to go toe-for-toe with Canada’s bottom three lines, which have accounted for 15 total goals.
Goaltending is not an advantage for either team, with both squads boasting some of the best goaltending and defensive play in the tournament. But what is an advantage is Canada’s 5-on-5 play so far. Through 180 minutes of hockey, Team Canada has yet to give up an even-strength goal as all three of its goals against have come while shorthanded.
Team Canada has four full lines of first-round talent and that’s something Finland can’t match for 60 minutes. Add in the extra rest for the host team and we have to ride on the Canadian side for this New Year’s eve battle. Finland has eliminated Team Canada three times since 2014, which gives this already uber-talented Canadian team some more motivation.
We like the -1.5 puck line, but at -187 we are forced to either wait for the line to move north or hit the alternative puck line, which is what we are doing.
PREDICTION: Team Canada alternative puck line -2.5 (+135)
Over/Under Pick
In their last six meetings, the Over 6 is 1-3-2 O/U but the average score has been 6.0 total goals. Finland has hit the Over once through three games while the Canadians have used a couple of blowouts to go 2-1 O/U.
Since neither team has really been tested in the early goings, it is tough to predict how this match between the Group’s best teams will go.
However, Team Canada hit the Over in the two games that they had a full day off to rest and will go into Thursday’s game not having played since Tuesday. Finland has yet to play on back-to-back days, until today, while Russia and the USA also hit the Over in their second games of a B2B.
Taking the Canadians on the Under isn’t for the light-hearted. Team Canada has been getting goal production from everyone not named Devon Levi as 10 of the tournament’s Top-20 scorers are all Canucks. Even the defense has chipped in six of the team’s 29 goals.
They threw 52 shots on the Swiss in a 10-0 win on Tuesday and are the tournament's highest-scoring team. They are 5-for-13 with the man advantage while also allowing three goals while shorthanded. If either team can get on the board early and avoid a 0-0 first, we like six goals a lot more than five.
PREDICTION: Over 6 (-101)
Team Finland vs Team Canada Betting Card
- Team Canada alternative puck line -2.5 (+135)
- Over 6 (-101)
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