Serbia vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men's Basketball

Olympic Men’s Basketball is now in full swing and Day 2 sees arguably the best collection of talent in Olympic history take the court as the United States tips off against Serbia. 

Team USA has stars at every position, but Serbia has the best player on the planet in Nikola Jokic to help balance the scales.

My Serbia vs. USA predictions marvel at the longevity of LeBron James and why he’s still the straw that stirs the drink for the American side two decades on. 

Serbia vs USA prediction

My best bet
LeBron James Over 14.5 points (-115)

My analysis

LeBron James made his Olympic debut two decades ago at the 2004 Olympics in Athens, and yet all these years later he remains the unquestioned leader of Team USA.

LeBron isn’t a Top-5 NBA player anymore, though on any given play or any one game he can still summon the capacity to play as well as the very best in the world. The 82-game season grind and an increasing number of nagging injuries have robbed him of his once untouchable staying power, but in the right environment, he can still dominate.

Team USA is just such an environment. The Americans have better spacing than anyone in the tournament, and defenders to take the most demanding assignments. If they lack for anything it’s a bunch of players who can aggressively attack a packed paint and score off the dribble. LeBron is still their most reliable bet to play that way, using his unparalleled combination of strength and guile to finish through contact.

Despite playing with numerous stars who are in their prime, the offense ran through LeBron and every player deferred to him during the exhibition games. He rewarded Steve Kerr and his staff in turn by coming up clutch over and over again, including magnetic closing acts to seal narrow victories over South Sudan and Germany.

On Sunday he’ll be called upon again as Team USA begins group play against Serbia. Serbia is a team with a lot of strengths, but interior defense does not figure to be one of them. Not only do they not have a good matchup for LeBron, but Serbia’s rim protection and ability to contain dribble penetration is in serious doubt. 

Nikola Jokic has worked hard to become a passable-to-good defender in the NBA but does so exclusively as a center. He has great hands and is smart about positioning. He’s drafted to play power forward for his country however, and his footspeed and mobility are comically poor for a player in that position, let alone one who might end up having to stop James from a line drive to the basket.

LeBron is going to have the ball most of the time when he’s on the court, and Serbia will be good enough to demand his best, most aggressive offense. 

Steph shakes loose

My Stephen Curry prop: Over 2.5 threes (-140)

For a guy who will rank in many people’s Top-10 of all-time players when all is set and done, it’s bizarre to realize that this is Steph Curry’s first (and more than likely only) Olympic games. It’s also the first time that he and James have suited up together, and their on-court fit has been about as hand-and-glove as you would imagine. 

Team USA has a lot of good shooters, but they don’t have many players who are willing to aggressively bomb it like Curry. Nor obviously do they have anyone close to as good as making the kind of aggressive attempts he takes. 

Steph’s best game in the exhibitions came against Serbia when he splashed six threes and scored 24 points. His spacing and gravity and the way he manipulates the court with his movement are key to Team USA’s offense, and Kerr is always going to ride Steph in the moments that count.

Serbia doesn’t have an elite guard defense, and it’s going to prove nearly impossible for any team to track Steph around multiple screens when they’re worried about James, Joel Embiid, or one of the innumerable other American scoring threats on the ball. 

Serbia vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

Be wary of anchoring to the most recent result between these two teams too much. Serbia is an elite team with outstanding chemistry and a balanced roster. They were good enough to win Silver at last year’s FIBA World Cup even without Jokic suiting up.

When Team USA dominated the recent exhibition, Serbia was on a back-to-back, Bogdan Bogdanovic didn’t play at all, and Jokic didn’t play in the fourth quarter. Serbia didn’t want to tip their hand in a game they knew they had no chance to win knowing they had a big game against the Americans coming up.

Serbia’s ability to beat teams with the pass and their youth, size, and shooting on the wing makes them a quality opponent. With Spain’s decline, they might be the best passing team in the tournament. They marry high passing volume with low turnovers, and that’s a good way to beat a team that switches a lot like Team USA.

This line has been steadily creeping towards Serbia all week, but at +13.5 it’s still a valuable leg for this same-game parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Serbia vs USA odds

Odds as of 7-27.

Serbia vs USA game info

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