New Zealand vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Soccer

New Zealand hopes to clinch a spot in the Paris Olympics knockout stage with a win on Saturday over the United States. Their 2-1 win over Guinea gave them three crucial points, but they’ll need a result ahead of a showdown with France.

The Americans fell 3-0 to the host nation, and must get at least a draw here to remain alive, and my New Zealand vs. USA predictions see them toeing that line.

Find out why in my Olympic soccer betting picks for Saturday, July 27. 

New Zealand vs. USA prediction and best bet

Drawing conclusions

Match prediction
Draw (+370)

My analysis
Despite the 3-0 defeat, the United States weren’t terrible against France. They nearly took an early lead when Djordje Mihailovic hit the crossbar with a long-range effort, and had just one fewer shot and one fewer shot on target than France did on the day.

But the Americans missed two big chances and paid for it, as France was clinical on their opportunities. The Yanks were also caught offside four times and committed numerous turnovers, which proved costly.

Now they’re forced to get a result, and will meet a New Zealand side that knows a draw would earn them a valuable point. They have a solid goalkeeper in Alex Paulsen from AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League, and they have the ability to hurt the Americans on the counter with pace.

The United States will have to find ways to break down the Oly Whites in what I expect to be a very tight, cagey affair. New Zealand’s win came despite being outshot 17-9 by Guinea, although had they converted an early penalty their victory might have been a bit more comfortable.

As it stands, they’ll be fine with absorbing pressure here and making things difficult for the Americans. They won’t take many risks, and they’ll force the USA to convert chances.

The likelihood of a stalemate here makes the price for a draw a solid value. The Americans are likely to win, but the implied odds of a draw here are too low, which is why it’s my pick on the 3-way line.

Backed into a corner

My best bet
United States Over 5.5 corners (+130)

My analysis
Our best bet plays off everything we just discussed. The United States managed just two corners in their loss to France, but they were being pressured throughout and rarely had to shoot through a crowd of bodies. Furthermore, the French defenders were of such high quality that they could win tackles and possession without having to resort to blocking shots. 

That’s not the case with New Zealand. They conceded 17 shots to Guinea in their opener, and their opponents registered nine corners during the match. Five of those came before halftime, so there wasn’t a slew of late opportunities skewing the number.

With New Zealand being more cautious and content with a draw, there’s a terrific chance for the red, white, and blue to rack up some corners. And at a price of +130, I can’t pass on them getting at least six on the day.

Guinea took a fair number of their shots from outside the box, putting four of those on target. They had just 18 touches in New Zealand’s penalty area, underlying just how difficult it was to penetrate their defense.

The longer New Zealand can hold the Americans at bay, the more desperate they’ll get. This will lead to longer shots, from any and every angle. The Oly Whites will block shots as they did against Guinea, and the Americans will see their corner count rise. That’s fine by me, as it’ll lead to money in our pockets regardless of the outcome. 

New Zealand vs USA odds

• Moneyline: New Zealand +600 | USA -225 | Draw +370
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-150) | Under 2.5 (+120)

New Zealand vs USA game info

Pages related to this topic