Australia vs Canada Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women’s Basketball

Australia and Canada are both hoping to rebound after crushing opening games losses in Olympic Women’s Basketball. While Canada’s defeat to France went according to script, the highly touted Australia dropping their matchup against Nigeria is one of the shocks of the tournament so far. 

The fate of both Commonwealth teams now essentially hangs in the balance as they face off on Thursday, August 1, with the loser’s hopes of an Olympic medal put into dire straits.

My Australia vs. Canada predictions detail what went wrong for the Opals against Nigeria, and why they’re likely to play better against their northern cousins.

Australia vs Canada prediction

My best bet
Australia -7.5 (-112)

My analysis

World No. 3 Australia got blown off the court by No. 12 Nigeria in their opening game, ultimately losing 75-62 and failing to score 20 points in any quarter of the game. 

What undid Australia in the game against Nigeria was almost purely turnovers. Nigeria’s guards put immense ball pressure on the Australian ballhandlers, and Australia rewarded them by committing a jaw-dropping 26 turnovers.

Those turnovers completely undid the Australian offense and keyed Nigeria in the fast break. Nigeria’s offense was then able to get going in transition, and the Opals couldn’t set up their elite halfcourt defense.

Canada isn’t in a position to replicate that strategy. Their best defenders are sound positional players, but other than Aaliyah Edwards, you don’t expect them to create many steals. 

If they’re not forcing a ton of turnovers, that means Canada’s offense is going to have to score against a set defense, and their performance against France gives me little confidence that they can do so. I harped on it ahead of the game against France, but Canada has very poor spacing relative to the elite teams. 

Meanwhile, Australia arguably has even better defensive personnel on the inside than France did. Ezi Magbegor is one of the frontrunners for Defensive Player of the Year in the WNBA and quarterbacks the Aussie frontcourt.

The same issues that derailed Canada's offense against France — when they scored just two points in the second quarter — are likely to rear their head against Australia on Thursday. 

Ezi money

My Ezi Magbegor prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-150)

Magbegor is one of the most skilled bigs in the WNBA, and she’s quickly become a featured player on a highly tilted and experienced Australian team despite her relative youth. She’s consistently called on to play big minutes for the Opals, and it’s easy to see why.

There’s no lineup combination that she doesn’t fit with, and she has never played off the court because of her high mobility and immense skill level. She’s the ultimate plug-and-play big, who brings strong defense, passing, scoring, and rebounding to any collection of players.

Canada plays an interior-focused style on offense. They’ll be bashing their heads against the wall trying to score at the rim, and Ezi will have two feet in the paint nearly at all times. Positioning is more than half the battle when it comes to rebounding, and Magbegor will be in place to take full advantage of it.

Australia vs Canada same-game parlay (SGP)

Like many of Australia’s best players, Sami Whitcomb has been a longtime feature of the Seattle Storm. She’s a shooter’s shooter, a specialist brought in to let it fly. 

Although she's entering the twilight of her WNBA career at age 35, shooting touch is typically the very last thing to desert a professional basketball player. Whitcomb has shot 38% or better in three of the last four seasons and is at 36.5% from deep for her career.

In the game against Nigeria, she took 12 attempts from deep, which was as many as the rest of the Aussie's starters combined. The fact that Whitcomb got up 14 total shots while having an off night (she finished 5-for-14 for 13 points) is proof positive that she has the ultimate green light. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Australia vs Canada odds

Odds as of 7-31.

Australia vs Canada game info

Pages related to this topic