Australia will leave it all on the line as they take on the USA in their final Olympic group stage match.
Australia’s hopes of advancing in the 2024 Paris Olympics are still alive thanks to a thrilling 6-5 comeback win over Zambia. Meanwhile, the Americans made a statement by handling Germany with ease, and their 4-1 win secured them top spot in the group.
My Australia vs USA predictions for Wednesday, July 31, explain why this will be another high-scoring affair.
Australia vs USA prediction and best bet
Hooray for USA
Match prediction
USA to win (-239)
My analysis
It took 40 seconds for Zambia to breach Australia's defenses, and although the Matildas leveled a few minutes later, Zambia would lead 5-2 in the second half before a miraculous comeback secured the Boomers a vital win.
Some of the goals scored by Zambia were of high comedic value, as the Matildas repeatedly made mistakes. Goalkeeper Mackenzie Arnold was at fault for multiple tallies, and her backline was beaten multiple times via set pieces.
And to make matters worse, a report came out on Tuesday from The Australian stating there were serious problems in the locker room. The words “disorganized” and “mess” were used, as well as one descriptor that rhymes with “hit show”.
That’s probably not the best thing to have to happen before a must-win match, especially when you’re facing an American side Emma Hayes has fired up on all cylinders through the first two matches. The Aussies clearly miss star player and captain Sam Kerr, and without her, they stand little chance against the United States.
The Americans will win this one easily, but I recommend using USA ML as a leg in your SGP rather than betting it as a straight simply due to the juice.
No holds barred
My best bet
Team USA Over 2.5 goals (+162)
My analysis
If Zambia were able to score five goals on this Aussie defense, just imagine what the USWNT can do. I’m keeping things simple and taking USA to score three or more goals this afternoon for a multi-unit play.
The Americans have firepower everywhere on their roster, regardless of who starts for Hayes, and she's a manager who likes her players to maintain intensity no matter the situation — which bodes well for them going forward looking to score.
The German defense is miles better than the one the USWNT will face today, and they managed 13 shots and created four big chances against Germany. America scored four goals and could’ve had more while conceding one from outside the box.
On top of that, Germany were able to put three past Australia in their opener as well. It took well into the second half to find their second, but they managed two goals in just four minutes to break open the match.
I don’t know if Australia will score, but they’ll go all out to do so. Their goal differential here is already likely too bad to advance, and sitting back trying to get a draw would be a terrible idea with how vulnerable they are. So their best chance is to try to take the game to the Americans.
That’ll work just fine for the USA, and for us as bettors. Whether they go with their starting trio of Trinity Rodman, Sophia Smith, and Mallory Swanson from the jump or rotate and bring in the likes of Lynn Williams off the bench, there will be lethal attackers all across the American front line.
Australia vs USA odds
- Moneyline: Australia +340 | USA -154 | Draw +305
- Over/Under: Over 3.5 (+122) | Under 3.5 (-167)
Australia vs USA game info
| Location: | Marseille Stadium, Marseille, France |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-30-2024 |
| Time: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
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