The United States look to continue their dominance over Japan when the teams meet in the Olympic women’s soccer quarterfinals on Saturday.
The USA defeated Japan in the She Believes Cup back in April, marking the ninth time in 13 meetings they’ve taken the win. Japan hasn’t defeated the Americans in more than a decade, and I expect the curse to carry through the weekend.
Join me as I break down why I'm bullish on the Americans in our USA vs. Japan predictions for August 3.
USA vs. Japan prediction and best bet
No time to waste
Match prediction
United States moneyline (-155)
My analysis
The Americans are now neck and neck with Spain as betting favorites to win the gold medal in women’s soccer, and for good reason. Their performances thus far in the competition have seen them overwhelm their opponents with a relentless attack, and they’d be setting scoring records if not for their wasted chances.
Japan faced the aforementioned Spanish women in their group stage opener and fell 2-1 despite opening the scoring after just 13 minutes. They managed only four shots on the day as Spain kept 75% possession and attempted 14 shots, finally getting the winner just 16 minutes from time.
As good as Spain are, their attack lacks the pace and movement of what Japan will see on Saturday. Spain is a side that beats you with a thousand cuts, moving the ball around looking for the best chance to strike. Unfortunately, they’ve created only seven big chances in this tournament, and just one against Japan.
The Americans have created 16 big chances so far, including four against a German side ranked fourth in the world. Their front line of Sophia Smith, Trinity Rodman, and Mallory Swanson has either scored or assisted on eight of their nine goals so far, and they should’ve beaten Australia by multiple goals.
Japan has played decently in this tournament, but they’re only at this stage because of two stoppage-time goals scored against Brazil. They’ve been leaky in defense, don’t have a reliable goal-scorer, and have managed just one assist in the tournament.
Just as they lost to Spain, they’ll do so again on Saturday.
Back and forth affair
My best bet
USA moneyline & Over 2.5 goals (+130)
My analysis
The juice for both the Over and the USA money-line are far too high — so let’s combine them into a terrific play at plus-odds!
Japan has yet to keep a clean sheet in this tournament due to their iffy defense. They’ve allowed only 29 shots but have conceded four goals despite allowing just one big chance over the three matches.
However, they’re a dangerous team on the counter-attack. Combine those two factors and you tend to get a match with plenty of goal-scoring chances.
On the other side, the way Emma Hayes has the Americans playing right now is night and day from before she took over, and her triumvirate at the top is terrifying defenders from the opening whistle. They’re playing a strong possession-based style that is creating plenty of chances, but they have left themselves vulnerable to the counter at times.
There have been at least three goals scored in each of the group-stage matches for both nations, and if not for multiple wasted opportunities by the Americans in each match, they’d have scored more than the nine goals they have to their name.
Dating back to the 2011 World Cup, nine of the last 11 meetings between these countries have seen 3+ goals put on the board. In addition, only three of those fixtures have seen either side keep a clean sheet.
Those trends will continue here with how these sides match up. Take the Americans to win in regulation, combined with Over 2.5 goals, in what should be an entertaining up-and-down match.
USA vs Japan odds
- Spread: USA -0.5 (-170) | Japan +0.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: USA -155 | Japan +390
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-160) | Under 2.5 (+125)
USA vs Japan game info
| Location: | Parc des Princes, Paris, France |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-3-2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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