The PGA Tour jumps from Hawaii to California for The American Express in La Quinta this week. It’s a three-track event and the first of the two pro-am tournaments of the season.
Every pro and his amateur partner will play each of the three courses ahead of a 54-hole cut, with the final round returning to the Pete Dye Stadium Course for a second time. The other two tracks are the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club.
While this is another shallow field, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Cantlay stand out at the top of The American Express odds. It has me approaching this event differently when it comes to sleepers and long shots. I’m only recommending quarter-unit bets in the outright market because I’m not anticipating an out-of-nowhere winner.
Still, all of the following players have plus-money golf odds to finish inside the Top 40, and I am anticipating each showing well this week. Here are my free golf picks for this week’s The American Express.
2024 American Express sleeper picks
- Andrew Putnam to win outright (+7,500 at FanDuel)
- Adam Schenk to win outright (+9,000 at FanDuel)
- Tom Hoge to win outright (+15,000 at FanDuel)
- Andrew Putnam Top 40 (+100 at bet365)
- Adam Schenk Top 40 (+120 at bet365)
- Tom Hoge Top 40 (+150 at DraftKings)
Picks were made on 1/9/2024 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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2024 American Express and PGA West key stats
Course specifics aren’t as important to my handicapping this week because of the three-track rotation, and the Stadium Course is the only one with shot-track data. Instead, I’m looking for golfers capable of going low.
The highest score since 1990 was Charley Hoffman’s 343 (17-under) in 2007, with each of the other 32 winners at least 20-under par. Jon Rahm won at 27-under a season ago.
In addition to scoring average and birdie-or-better percentage, I’m looking for consistent ball strikers (strokes gained approach and strokes gained tee-to-green), and a hot putter always comes in handy in bridie contests.
Hudson Swafford finished third in strokes gained putting in winning fashion in 2022 and Si Woo Kim ranked eighth in the metric during his 2021 victory. Jon Rahm did buck that trend during last year’s win, but he also finished sixth from tee-to-green and on approach, so he didn’t need to lean on the flat stick.
Finally, because this event is literally a bit of a three-ring circus, I do value past success in addition to strokes gained around-the-green. The Stadium Course is a Pete Dye design, and a tidy short game is always helpful on his tracks.
- Scoring average
- Birdie-or-better percentage
- Strokes gained tee-to-green
- Strokes gained approach
- Strokes gained putting
- Strokes gained around-the-green
2024 American Express sleeper predictions
Andrew Putnam to win outright (+7,500)
Andrew Putnam has played on Sunday in six consecutive trips to The American Express, so while he definitely doesn’t traditionally profile as a candidate to win a birdie fest, this tournament has been a welcomed stop for the ninth-year PGA Tour pro.
He's fired in the 60s in 19 of 24 rounds en route to finishing double-digits under par in each of his noted past six stops in La Quinta, after all.
The current form is there for Putnam, too. He ranks 13th in true strokes gained approach and 24th in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 46 measured rounds and is coming off a solid T10 showing at the Sony Open last week.
Additionally, he finished seventh in putting at the Sony and he ranked 12th on Tour last season. He’s accurate off the tee, so expect a seventh straight solid showing at the Amex if the approach game and putting continue to click.
Pick: Andrew Putnam to win outright (+7,500 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Andrew Putnam Top 40 (+100 at bet365)
Adam Schenk to win outright (+9,000)
Adam Schenk’s game travels well and he heads to La Quinta in solid form, having played the weekend in nine of his past 11 events. The 31-year-old American carded a pair of runner-up finishes and seven Top-10 results last year, and he enters the event ranked 10th in true strokes gained approach and 24th from tee to green in this field across his past 45 measured rounds.
Additionally, I’m viewing Schenk’s recent lack of success at the Amex as a bonus. While he’s missed the cut in the past two events and topped out with a T14 finish in the 2020 edition, he’s still a player on the rise.
I value his current form and overall 2023 results far more than his play while finding his way on the PGA Tour. Simply put, Schenk’s best golf is still ahead of him, and his lack of success at this particular tournament is giving us longer odds to take advantage of.
Finally, Schenk went in -16 or lower in four of his Top-20 finishes last season, so he’s capable of competing in low-scoring tournaments.
Pick: Adam Schenk to win outright (+9,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Adam Schenk Top 40 (+120 at bet365)
Tom Hoge to win outright (+15,000)
The 34-year-old American checks several boxes heading into the week. Hoge has past success in the event, and his ball-striking is dialed in: he ranks third in this field in true strokes gained approach across his past 16 measured rounds and has gained strokes on approach in each of his past five events.
He's signed off on a runner-up finish here in 2022 and a T6 showing in the 2020 edition. Add in a T32 result last year and Hoge has the tournament history to contend on Sunday. I also value his T3 finish at THE PLAYERS in 2023 because it’s another Pete Dye design.
Finally, Hoge ranked 24th in birdie-or-better percentage last season and was priced in the +3,500 range ahead of this tournament just a year ago, so we’re landing a good number ahead of the 2024 edition.
Pick: Tom Hoge to win outright (+15,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Tom Hoge Top 40 (+150 at DraftKings)
