Big political changes looming in Canada have helped prompt interest among bettors and bookmakers in wagering on the future of the Great White North.
Justin Trudeau fired the starting gun on Monday for a race to replace him as leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister of Canada.
The current PM also said he had asked for and received approval from Governor General Mary Simon to prorogue the House of Commons until March 24, which will derail legislation related to legal sports betting in Canada.
Trudeau’s exit plan was announced amid rough polling numbers for the governing Liberals, a stalemate in the legislature, and the resignation last month of former finance minister and deputy PM Chrystia Freeland, who could now join the contest to succeed Trudeau.
Door closes, betting window opens
It’s that leadership race and its participants that are creating betting opportunities. So, too, is the likely prospect of a federal election in Canada after Trudeau's replacement is selected.
There is indeed a large and growing interest in betting on politics, whether using the traditional odds of sportsbooks or via the buying and selling of event contracts with prediction markets. The recent political turmoil and turnover in Canada now makes it a natural outlet for at least some of that interest.
Furthermore, because it's 2024, bookmakers and prediction market operators are standing by, ready, and willing to put a price on the next Liberal chief and PM.
"There’s an appetite for political betting in general that’s grown over time," said William Kedjanyi, the head of political content for U.K.-based Star Sports, in a direct message. "It’s expanded beyond [the U.K. and the U.S.]."
More odds for the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership race c/o @StarSports_Bet and @KeejayOV3. Freeland slightly shorter than Carney here, with some longer shots down the board.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) January 7, 2025
cc: @Covers_Ro pic.twitter.com/DDKWwSLBHV
Unsurprisingly, the most willing oddsmakers for the Liberal leadership race are based outside of Canada. There is a reluctance among Canada's government-owned lottery and gaming corporations to take action on local politics to avoid any awkwardness or apparent conflicts of interest. Such was the case with the 2021 election.
Whether that will remain the case for the legion of private-sector sportsbooks in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, remains to be seen. Those operators were not yet authorized and licensed in Ontario when the 2021 election happened. Ontario then launched a competitive iGaming market in 2022.
As of Tuesday, though, wagering options for the Liberal leadership race or the next prime minister were almost non-existent in Ontario.
U.K.-based Fitzdares, which is also regulated and available in the province, was offering a market for former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney to be the next Canadian prime minister at odds of +2,000, albeit with a $10 limit. Bloomberg reported Monday evening that Carney is considering joining the Liberal leadership race.
(Coolbet, which has withdrawn from Ontario's regulated market but is still available in other Canadian provinces, has odds for the Liberal leadership race more broadly. Carney was atop the oddsboard there as of Tuesday afternoon, at +110.)
A Commonwealth interest
Another U.K. bookmaker, albeit one without a presence in Ontario, had Carney’s odds of becoming the next permanent Liberal Party leader priced much shorter, at +138, as of Tuesday afternoon. The favourite at Star Sports was Freeland, at 11/10 or +110.
Kedjanyi said the market was a “first” for the bookmaker, which is trying to meet demand for political wagering. Star covered elections in Ireland last year and plans to do so for Germany this year, Kedjanyi noted.
The growing appetite for betting on politics was made clear during the U.S. presidential election campaign last fall. The U.K.-based Betfair Exchange, for instance, saw £250 million bet on the contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and the ultimately victorious Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Now Star and others have turned their attention to Canadian politics, and party politics at that. While action will likely pale in comparison to that of the U.S. election, it's another example of rising interest in political wagering overall.
“We've led with the two biggest names and then scoured the news for likely contenders,” Kedjanyi said of the Liberal leadership market. “We're going into it with a very open mind – I think some punters will try to pick outsiders who look overpriced – and the market will probably move a lot. Normally interest would be dwarfed by other political events, but with a lack of action in Europe right now – at least in terms of electoral contests – it's possible we might get more interest due to the timing.”
Another U.K. book, Ladbrokes, moved swiftly to throw up a Liberal leadership market as well, with Carney the shortest choice at +120 as of Tuesday afternoon. Freeland was close behind, at +125.
A predictable development
Polymarket, which saw huge interest in U.S. presidential election odds, also has contracts for the next leader of Canada's Liberal Party. More than $37,000 in volume was reported by the crypto-based prediction market in a little over a day.
Polymarket's contract prices have Carney priced as the favourite to claim the Liberal leadership mantle, with the former central banking official’s chances of winning sitting at around 43% as of Tuesday afternoon.
Freeland's Polymarket prices implied a 37% likelihood of winning, and she was followed in the odds by her replacement as finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc, at 10%. Other longshots included Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly and Transport and Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand.
Another prediction market, Kalshi, has markets available for Canada's next prime minister. Those markets have gotten quite volatile in the New Year given the recent news.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had been priced as the clear favourite to be the next Canadian PM at the start of January, when the Tories were clear leaders in the polls and Trudeau was still hanging on.
However, with Trudeau on his way out and his successor almost certain to assume the title of prime minister as well, Poilievre's odds had tumbled to 13% as of Tuesday afternoon. Carney's, meanwhile, had shot up to 43% from around 15% earlier this month. More than $200,000 in trading volume has been reported by Kalshi for its next Canadian PM markets.
How to hedge an annexation
Like Polymarket (albeit legal and available for U.S. users), Kalshi has several other markets related to Canada and Canadian politics, such as if the next election will be called before April and whether Trump will impose new tariffs on the country this year.
Polymarket even has contracts for whether Canada will join the U.S. as the 51st state before July, which traders had priced at a 4% chance as of happening on Tuesday.
