The 2024 presidential election caught the interest of thousands of bettors worldwide, including a French trader and investor who bet millions on Trump’s win via the prediction platform Polymarket. However, amid this betting surge and excitement, France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) is now looking to ban the unregulated, crypto-based site.
“We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation,” an ANJ spokesperson told Bloomberg News.
The “Trump Whale”
The French “Trump Whale,” who goes by the name Thèo, reportedly bet around $30 million on Trump to win the Electoral College and the popular vote using four anonymous accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. At the time of writing, Theo4 sits at the top of the leaderboard as Polymarket’s most profitable account of all time, with $21,811,934. Fredi9999 follows in second with $14,626,694. The trader collected around $48 million in profits from this year’s election alone.
Thèo purchased the contracts after analyzing all of the New York Times/Siena College surveys since September to realize that most polls were skewed to the advantage of Kamala Harris.
“I encourage you, really, to go to the Siena website. Check the cross tabs. Make the work I did. And you will be astonished! I tell you that Trump will outperform the polls, especially these polls, by 4-5% minimum,” Thèo said, speaking with Stefan Tompson from the news platform Visegrád 24. “If he loses, I would accept that I was wrong in my analysis, but I really doubt about that.”
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are expected to pay out around $450 million in winnings after Trump’s victory. After taking in more than $3.7 billion in bets on the 2024 election, Polymarket is estimated to pay out around $278 million, while the 40,000 Kalshi bettors who bet on Trump will collect roughly $159 million.
France versus U.S. regulation
Gambling in France is strictly regulated. The ANJ is responsible for regulating licensed online and retail gambling. The authority was founded in 2010 under the French Gambling Act to ensure fair operations, fight against fraud, and protect players from addiction.
Polymarket is already banned in the U.S. despite being headquartered in New York. The company stopped operating in the States in 2022 after it failed to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, bettors have found ways around this, such as virtual private networks (VPNs). Polymarket itself has even partnered with U.S.-based influencers to promote the platform, with sponsored content appearing on Instagram using hashtags such as #PolymarketPartner and #PMPartner.
This year’s election marked the first in decades that U.S. bettors had access to election prediction markets. Kalshi received approval to operate after a court ruling lifted the CFTC’s previous ban. The 2024 presidential election drew in plenty of betting action worldwide, with UK-based Betfair also reporting a handle of around $322 million.
