Donald Trump’s endorsement from a second former Democratic presidential candidate in less than a week has had little impact on his US election odds.
Former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard endorsed Trump on Tuesday, days after one-time Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Though Kennedy’s support nudged odds in Trump's favor, there appeared no such improvement from Gabbard.
As of Tuesday, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris were tied at many regulated sportsbooks. The odds of Trump winning the 2024 election had slightly decreased at several books since Kennedy’s endorsement last week.
Gabbard support trails Kennedy
A military veteran, Gabbard served four terms in the US House of Representatives before running unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020. Gabbard became an outspoken critic of the Democratic party in the ensuing years, leaving the party in 2022 and endorsing multiple Republicans in the 2022 midterms.
Despite being a frequent guest on conservative media, betting odds indicated she was not as significant an endorsement as Kennedy.
The son and nephew of two of the party’s most prominent figures of the last century, Kennedy pursued the Democratic party’s 2024 presidential nomination over incumbent Joe Biden. He struggled to gain support within the party and dropped his Democratic primary bid in Oct. 2023.
By 2024, his third-party campaign had some of the best polling numbers in decades of any candidate not affiliated with the two major parties. Reaching highs of nearly 15% support in some national polls and with odds as strong as +900 at sportsbooks, Democrats feared RFK could pull away pivotal votes in what was expected to be a close race.
Election betting updates following DNC conclusion:
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) August 23, 2024
- Harris, Trump tied in latest Canadian sportsbooks
- Trump leads at Polymarket, Harris up at PredictIt
- RFK Jr, set to drop out and endorse Trump today, still up at sportsbooks; odds are +10000 (or longer) to win presidency
However, a series of bizarre interviews and claims began to drag Kennedy’s support into the single digits by the beginning of the summer. After Biden dropped out in July, much of his appeal to voters upset with both Biden and Trump waned.
Kennedy suspended his campaign Aug. 23, days after media reports circulated he would drop out and endorse Trump. This boosted Trump slightly, despite coinciding with Democrats’ well-received nomination convention.
Harris presidential betting odds impact
Harris, whose betting odds were +1000 or more at regulated sportsbooks in the weeks before Biden dropped out, has steadily gained support from within her party, national voters, and political bookmakers. Kamala Harris’ betting odds show her tied or leading at most books and prediction markets heading into the election’s final stretch.
Harris herself has touted the endorsement of several hundred former Republicans, though few with the stature of Gabbard or Kennedy. She has presented herself as a break from Biden - and the current administration she is a part of – and as way forward against the resumption of Trump’s policies as president.
This strategy has proved effective in both national polls and betting odds.
Trump was as much as a -250 favorite following a disconcerting debate performance by Biden in June and a survived assignation attempt in July. Following Biden’s campaign suspension, Harris has continued gaining support, turning an election that looked like a potential landslide into a neck-and-neck race.
The two candidates are scheduled to debate Sept. 10 in what could be another critical moment in each campaign’s trajectory.
