The latest presidential election odds have significantly narrowed the gap between the candidates — and the numbers might get even tighter Sunday following the release of shocking poll results from Iowa.
Donald Trump: -125
Kamala Harris: +110
The Des Moines Register reported late Saturday that the latest results from renowned pollster Ann J. Selzer have Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris with a three-point advantage over Republican counterpart Donald Trump. It's the first time Harris has led Trump in an Iowa poll, and it comes just two days out from Election Day.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told the Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
According to the Register, 808 likely Iowa voters took part in the poll; that group includes those who have voted, as well as those who intend to cast a ballot. The survey was conducted from Oct. 28-31 and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Immediate odds impact
It didn't take long for exchange markets and sports betting sites to react.
Kalshi and Polymarket both moved Harris and Trump closer together in their respective election projections. Kalshi moved Trump down more than four points to 51% vs. Harris at 49%, while Polymarket has Trump down nearly four points as well from a 57.8% chance at victory early Saturday.
The Donald Trump odds and Kamala Harris odds were also impacted significantly. Trump skyrocketed from -163 to start the day down to -125 as of Sunday morning at bet365. Harris, meanwhile, saw her odds plummet from +140 all the way to +110.
DraftKings made an even more dramatic move, shifting Trump to -120 and Harris to +110.
The biggest impact came on the Iowa state presidential odds. Trump entered Saturday as a -3,000 near-lock to prevail in Iowa; by midnight Sunday, those odds had risen to -400.
Flip coming? Not so fast
On the surface, the news is certainly encouraging — particularly given that Selzer is universally considered one of the top pollsters in the country.
FiveThirtyEight ranks Selzer & Co. among the most accurate polling entities, and Selzer has correctly called the Iowa result in four of the past five elections with an average absolute error of 3.1 points — an incredible accuracy rate for any pollster.
That said, the majority of competing polling firms still have Trump comfortably ahead in the state, and every major sports betting site and exchange still has the former president as the favorite not only in Iowa, but in the Trump vs. Harris odds overall.
