The writing is on the wall for U.S. President Joe Biden.
Not only have Joe Biden's odds to win the upcoming US presidential election plummeted, but there are now betting lines available on whether he will step aside and let someone else run the party.
Following a trainwreck of a performance in the first US presidential debate, reports have circulated that Biden could be under pressure to withdraw from the race in favor of a candidate better equipped to defeat Donald Trump.
The US presidential election odds have Biden listed at +350 to win the White House again, and he's listed at +185 to drop out of the US presidential race altogether. Will he bow out, as many believe, or is it already too late for the Democrats to change horses midstream?
Let's take a closer look at the odds:
Will Joe Biden drop out of the US presidential race?
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Yes | +185 | 35.1% |
Odds as of July 2, 2024.
Biden stumbled badly during first debate
For years, Trump supporters have been deriding Biden as incompetent, but now there's also growing concern on the left that Biden doesn't have what it takes to win the election. Those fears have been exacerbated by the first presidential debate where Biden had a shaky voice, was occasionally incoherent and often stared off into the distance.
Who won the debate?
— EvanLuthra.eth (@EvanLuthra) June 28, 2024
Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
pic.twitter.com/zcgMUmKpNl
While his team has insisted that he's still committed to running, there are rumblings that influential donors and party leadership are getting overwhelmingly concerned with Biden's ability to win this election. Keep in mind that even before the debate, there were questions about Biden's fitness for a second term as he's already the oldest president in American history at 81 and is clearly not as sharp or as energetic as he once was.
It's rare to see an incumbent president not seek a second term but it has happened with Lyndon B. Johnson, James K. Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. That said, it would be an unprecedented move at this point in the election cycle and would leave the Democrats scrambling to find a replacement.
Biden is still well ahead of fellow Democrats
When Biden won the 2020 election there were many that thought he would pass the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris by this election cycle, but her sinking popularity has made that transition extremely unlikely. At the start of this year there was even a rumor that Biden would step down citing health reasons with former First Lady Michelle Obama replacing him at the Democrat convention in August.
Meanwhile, California governor Gavin Newsom continues to insist he was no intentions of replacing Biden, but his election odds continue to rise and he appears to be the next heir apparent for the Democrat party.
Alex Wagner presses Gov. Gavin Newsom on questions about whether Biden should step down.
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) June 28, 2024
Newsom: “You don’t turn your back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?”
“This president has delivered. We need to deliver for him at this moment.” pic.twitter.com/J5G9XGNYWn
That said, the Smarkets exchange still gives Biden a 54% chance of being the Democrat candidate with Harris at 21.7% and Newsom at 8.3%. Even that number seems too low given the obstacles in front of a change in leadership. Party rules make it almost impossible to replace nominees without their consent. Even if Biden does choose to withdraw on his own under internal pressure, it would be extremely challenging to confirm a replacement and then pivot to new messaging with the election four months away.
Better to put your wagers instead on the party nomination markets or, if you're feeling especially adventurous, by laying down money on Donald Trump conviction odds.
