Odds Of Trump Winning 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump's Lead Grows as Polls Close

Donald Trump continues to sit atop the US presidential election odds board, as the former president hopes to become the second person in US history to serve two non-consecutive terms in the White House. Keep up with the latest in our US presidential election betting live blog.

Oddsmakers remain bullish on Trump's chances and he's getting many of the biggest election bets with the public. The public can have its say in Covers' US election pick'em contest.

With Election Day finally here, will the betting forecast prove true? Here are the latest Trump vs. Harris odds:

Candidate	Odds to win 2024 US election at	Implied probability
Donald Trump	-1400	93.3%
Kamala Harris	+800	11.1%

Trump had been the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 election moving to -250 as of mid-July following an assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania that resulted in him being grazed in the ear by a bullet. 

The political markets were shaken even further on July 21 when Biden, still recovering from COVID-19, announced that he would not seek re-election and was dropping out of the 2024 presidential picture. But in August, the Kamala Harris odds soared as the current Vice President has reinvigorated the Democratic Party – sending Trump all the way down to +100 as of Aug. 26.

He received a minor boost in the days leading up to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s announcement he would drop out of the race. And pundits and bettors alike will be monitoring whether the sportsbooks respond to news that Kennedy, along with former Democrat-turned-Trump booster Tulsi Gabbard, have joined Trump's transition team.

Days away from Election Day, Trump regained (and increased) his lead, rising to a nearly 2-to-1 favorite. His "closing argument" at a Madison Square Garden rally drew significant attention as he once again doubled down on his core message, seemingly at the expense of expanding his potential voter pool. It remains to be seen if this strategy will (again) help or hurt the former president gain votes from the small subset of undecided swing-state voters that will likely decide the election. 

Here are Trump's presidential election odds as he looks to become just the second person ever to serve two non-consecutive terms in the White House. 

Donald Trump fast facts

2024 presidential election betting odds

Candidate	Odds to win 2024 US election at	Implied probability
Donald Trump	-1400	93.3%
Kamala Harris	+800	11.1%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Nov. 5, 2024. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.

Beating Biden (and now Harris)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimate for 2024’s first-quarter real GDP growth and it's the worst quarterly performance in two years. While Biden has long been touting job growth and a strong dollar as indicators of an improving economy, high interest rates, and inflation continue to hit American voters in their wallets. 

Meanwhile, the conflict in Gaza has resulted in protests at campuses across the country, which have led to more than 2,000 arrests. Despite the White House’s criticism of the protesters and Biden’s refusal to cut off U.S. support for Israel, Republicans have blamed Democrats for the disorder.

With the migrant crisis at the border also adding to the terrible optics for Biden's regime, the upcoming election should be a layup for the GOP. However, while Trump is polling better than he was four years ago, he remains wildly unpopular.

It's been a double-edged sword for Trump, with his brash and abrasive personality appealing to the MAGA vote but also losing support from moderate Republicans and those across the aisle. Ultimately, whether he can win the general election will come down to whether swing voters are willing to tolerate his character in exchange for policies that they feel will improve their quality of life.

Many Never-Trumpers and those Republicans unwilling to vote for Trump again would still be loathe to cross aisles and vote for Harris. However, even if they refuse to vote or decide to vote for an Independent option, it would be a boon for the Democrat party.

Battling for the swing states

In elections that look this close, the winner is usually whoever can win key battleground states. Biden won the 2020 election in large part due to narrow victories in swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all states Trump took in 2016.

While Trump began to see his leads in the battleground states slip with Harris at the helm for the Democrats, the picture is far more rosy for the GOP in recent weeks. As of Nov. 5, Nate Silver's election projections site has Trump trailing in Michigan (-1.2), and Wisconsin (-1), and holding the lead in North Carolina (+1.1), Georgia (+1), and Arizona (+2.4). Pennsylvania (+0.1) is a virtual coin flip.

Harris, the Democratic nominee, saw the odds narrow further between her and Trump after she announced on Aug. 6 that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz would be her running mate. The Associated Press first broke the news; Walz closed the vice president odds at -300 on bet365.

Trump has seen his support among Latinos grow and an Axios/Ipsos poll gave him an edge on Biden when it came to issues regarding the economy (42-20), crime (31-20), and even immigration (29-22). With Latinos accounting for 15% of eligible voters and having a strong presence in Nevada and Arizona, Trump winning over those voters would be crucial to his success in those states. 

That said, there are ways to lose voters in those battleground states as well, and the recent neat-total abortion ban in Arizona could result in major backlash for the Republicans. While Trump took credit for helping reverse Roe v Wade, he has also said that the recent ban went too far.

Trump facing criminal trials

Trump's presidential election odds took a hit last year when he was indicted in four criminal cases on a total of 91 felony counts. Those included charges for mishandling sensitive documents and trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election, as well as state charges for attempting to change the outcome of Biden's victory in Georgia.

Trump pulled a reverse UNO card on his charges by claiming they are proof of a witch hunt, and with his base rallying behind him, his odds have since recovered. It's become clear that not only do most Republicans not care about the legal problems surrounding Trump but that those charges won't derail his campaign as his legal team will look to delay the results until after the election.

Trump was recently fined for contempt for violating a gag order in his criminal trial in New York. However, given that his brand has been built on his brazen personality, such actions will likely only endear him to his MAGA faithful. 

Even if Trump can push some of his trials until after the election, the energy and money it takes to fight those legal battles will surely wear on him — or at least his wallet.

Rivals within the Republican Party

Over the last few years, other Republicans have emerged as potential presidential candidates, but the primaries proved that Trump is still the unquestioned top dog in the GOP. Trump had such a massive lead in the polls that he didn't even bother attending the primary debates, letting the other challengers tear each other to pieces.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis emerged as Trump's closest rival, but after polling well behind Trump and losing by 30 points to him in the Iowa primary, he dropped out of the race in January. The biggest flaw in DeSantis' campaign was that he drew his support from the MAGA contingent of the base, which remains extremely loyal to Trump.

In fact, Vivek Ramaswamy saw his national profile rise largely due to his support for Trump's policies and his refusal to say anything negative about the former president.

Nikki Haley was the last remaining Republican challenger, but even she conceded defeat after Super Tuesday, following lopsided losses in almost every state — including her own home state of South Carolina. Conservatives even derided Haley's lone two victories by pointing out that Vermont is a staunch blue state and that Trump's reputation as a political outsider is reinforced by losing in the political swamp of D.C.

Vice president announcement

Trump made it official on his Truth Social account just hours before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 15, tabbing Ohio senator JD Vance as his 2024 running mate.

Vance, who was the No. 2 favorite in the final Republican vice president odds, is in his first term as a senator from Ohio. He gained national prominence for his 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which detailed cultural and economic issues in his hometown of Middletown, Ohio. He was a Trump critic during the 2016 election cycle but has since established himself as one of his most vociferous defenders on Capitol Hill and in the media. 

He topped North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who were reportedly the other finalists for the position.

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