With sportsbooks blocked from taking wagers on this year’s presidential election in the United States, sometimes you have to look abroad for insight into how a typical bettor may view the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Thankfully, in the United Kingdom, plenty of everyday punters have political opinions.
In fact, wagering on the 2024 U.S. presidential election in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland is expected to outweigh the action on this year’s U.K. general election — and perhaps vastly outweigh it.
William Kedjanyi, the head of political content for U.K. bookmaker Star Sports, attributes the greater interest in this year's U.S. presidential election to a few factors, one of which is the “celebrity” involved in the American contests. Trump, of course, is an easy example of that.
🇺🇸 | 95% OF BETS ON TRUMP
— Star Sports Bookmakers (@StarSports_Bet) October 24, 2024
Donald Trump continues to see plenty of money in the US election market, raking in 95% of all bets placed over the past week.
Read more in our press release - with comments from @KeejayOV3 👇
18+ | https://t.co/M160bmFAf9https://t.co/nugIBV8NaL
There is also the competitiveness of presidential campaigns, which is evident in the latest U.S. election odds.
Even though the Republican Trump is a clear favorite, his implied probability of winning sits at around 60%. A Harris victory on Nov. 5 would be like the Seattle Seahawks beating the Buffalo Bills this Sunday; unlikely, perhaps, but very possible.
U.S. elections “are nearly always semi-competitive,” Kedjanyi said. While there have been blowouts, more recent races have been relatively close.
That closeness is more appealing to bettors this year, especially since the U.K. general election in July was expected to be and was a landslide victory for the Labour Party.
“Trump is favored heavily now and he's taking all the money in the market, despite his price continuing to shorten, and probably beyond what modeling would put him at,” Kedjanyi said. “But, again, it’s not predicted to be a blowout."
Compare that to the U.K. general election, for which punters and pundits had a Labour majority “priced in from the start,” Kedjanyi said.
“We did good business on constituencies, but with the result being anticipated by so many people, we weren't going to do much business on headline markets,” he noted.
'Not going to be Election Night and over'
The last time there was a U.S. presidential election and U.K. general election in the same year was 1992. Even so, Kedjanyi said Star Sports typically sees more wagering on U.K. elections than U.S. ones, due in part to the wagering on individual constituencies, which are similar to congressional districts.
This year, however, is an exception to that rule.
It's also not necessarily the rule for everyone. Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Covers that for them, a U.K. general election is usually worth around £50 million in wagering. This year, the exchange's U.S. election winner market has already registered more than double that handle.
"[A] U.S. election is high stakes drama, it’s a constant news story around the world which makes the Exchange markets very volatile, and for punters that’s an appealing prospect," Rosbottom said in a text message.
The interest abroad this election cycle underscores the big business that is wagering on the U.S. presidential race.
And while election betting is allowed in certain ways in the U.S., none of them are regulated sportsbooks such as DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, wannabe political bettors must seek alternate routes, such as purchasing election-related contracts on Kalshi.
In the meantime, the wagering may only be getting going in the U.K. The handle for the 2020 presidential election broke records, and more action is expected for this year’s edition as Nov. 5 draws nearer.
Wagering could extend past Election Day as well. After all, Trump refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 election and he's given indications that he will dispute any result that isn’t him winning in 2024.
“It is not going to be Election Night and over,” Kedjanyi said. “You need to price in several days. And I do not mean to say this in any sort of a partisan way — I simply mean it because this is what history tells us — I just cannot believe that Trump will be on the other side of a contested election and be instantly on the phone to concede.”
Bet by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night
There are still some potential catalysts to come, such as Trump’s planned appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast and then, on Election Night itself, a fuller picture of early voting results.
In 2020, those early votes tilted Democratic, but the COVID-19 pandemic loomed large over the proceedings. Republicans have been pushing their supporters more to embrace early voting this year (reporting thus far suggests the GOP has made gains in this area), but more Democrats may opt to vote in person this time around.
“I would be really wary about comparing early voting during the thick teeth of a pandemic to a situation now, which, for all intents and purposes, is normalcy, and one where many Republican voters believe that the election might well be stolen from them and believe that they have to get maximum turnout,” Kedjanyi said. “I wouldn't tally those numbers directly and start making direct comparisons and say the race is over.”
Trump was a -150 favorite to win the presidency again at Star Sports on Thursday afternoon, a 60% implied probability of victory. Harris was priced at 11/8, or +138.
Yet the money continues to pour in on Trump. At Star Sports, the Republican nominee accounted for 95% of all bets placed on the presidential election earlier this week.
📈 With 11 days to go in the race to the White House it remains very close in the betting!
— Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) October 24, 2024
Will we see another twist? pic.twitter.com/kJvxbjTDXP
Another data point that supports the greater interest among U.K. bettors in the U.S. election instead of the one that played out in their backyard is the activity reported by the Betfair Exchange.
For instance, on the morning of June 20, two weeks before the U.K. results were announced, approximately US$35,000 in trading had taken place over the previous 24 hours on the exchange's market for which party would win the most seats. For the U.S. presidential election, more than US$5.7 million in trading on the winner went on from Wednesday to Thursday.
The key difference between the two markets is that the outcome in one was basically decided, while the other remains a live wire. Labour was -5000 to win the most seats on June 20, whereas Trump was priced as a -141 favorite on the Betfair Exchange.
“More than £100m has now been wagered on Betfair Exchange's US Election winner market alone,” the company’s election live blog said earlier this week. “Wednesday saw the highest amount wagered on the market since the 2020 election finished, with £4.2m bet in 24 hours, twice the previous day's amount.”
