Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would suspend his campaign Friday, ending what had been a surprisingly strong third-party effort and giving a potential political boost to Donald Trump.
Days after running mate Nicole Shanahan indicated the pair would leave the race, Kennedy made it official at a press conference in Arizona, miles from a scheduled Trump rally. Speculation circulated ahead of the announcement that Kennedy would endorse Trump, something the former president had publicly courted.
Kennedy's campaign disclosed Friday it would formally endorse Trump, according to media reports and campaign documents.
These reports were believed to play a part in a small, but important, boost to Trump’s 2024 election betting odds. Kamala Harris had held a consensus -125 edge to +100 for Trump as of Monday. By week’s end, the two were deadlocked at -110 at many major Ontario sportsbooks.
The boost is all the more surprising given the traditional bounce major party nominees receive during their respective nominating conventions. Though Democrats were largely touted for their energetic convention, and Harris applauded for her nominating speech, odds moved in Trump’s favor during the week.
The potential betting benefit also comes as Harris had taken on a seemingly unprecedented winning streak in the polls.
Trump had consensus odds of -250 or better to win back the presidency midway through July. Following Joe Biden’s departure from the race and Harris’ subsequent galvanization of the electorate, Trump had within a few weeks become the underdog.
Kennedy betting background
The son of former U.S. Attorney General and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, RFK Jr. had sought to find middle ground between Trump and Biden, the unpopular former and current presidents.
Benefited by his prominent name, millions in funding and public dissatisfaction over the two major party candidates, Kennedy had arguably the strongest third-party campaign since Ross Perot in 1992. He was the only candidate to run an ad in this year’s Super Bowl and held interviews across a wide range of high-profile, politically diverse media entities.
A member of the Democratic party’s most iconic families, Kennedy’s stances against vaccinations and other issues also appealed to Republican voters. Originally seeking to unseat Biden for the Democratic nomination, Kennedy later pursued the presidency as a third-party independent.
Earlier this year he had multiple polls showing low double-digit support, a strong showing for a candidate from neither major party.
Michelle Obama, who will not win the 2024 presidential election, is listed with +7000 odds to do so at bet365 Ontario, the fifth-best odds of any candidate; Robert Kennedy Jr, who (at this moment) is running, is at +6600
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) August 21, 2024
But he, like all other third-party candidates, struggled to gain ballot access in multiple states. A series of bizarre anecdotes and media appearances further withered away his chances for the presidency.
Trump’s survived assassination attempt in July gave him a significant lead over Biden – and an even larger margin over Kennedy. When Biden dropped out a few weeks later, the middle ground between two unpopular candidates was no longer viable.
Harris’ surprisingly strong consolidation of the Democratic Party’s nomination as well as her rise in the polls effectively gave Kennedy no shot at the presidency.
After peaking at odds of around +900 earlier this year, Kennedy’s odds dropped throughout the summer. They plummeted following Shanahan’s comments Aug. 21, hitting as low as +15,000 at Canadian sportsbooks in the hours before his official dropout announcement.
At multiple books he was tied or trailing both Nikki Haley and Michelle Obama, neither of whom is currently pursuing elected office.
